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  #1  
Old 09-27-2022, 06:06 PM
Econteachert205 Econteachert205 is offline
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Default Wainwright in the hall?

Iím just looking at Adam Wainwright and heís a very close comp for Roy Halladay. It seems like he should be in or very close if the hall considers Halladay a Hofer. Thoughts?
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  #2  
Old 09-27-2022, 06:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Econteachert205 View Post
Iím just looking at Adam Wainwright and heís a very close comp for Roy Halladay. It seems like he should be in or very close if the hall considers Halladay a Hofer. Thoughts?
Hall of very good IMO.
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  #3  
Old 09-27-2022, 06:16 PM
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Don't think he has the resume of Halladay (2 Cy Youngs, perfect game, playoff no hitter). I think of him like Tim Hudson. A very good pitcher in a tough time to be one. But not elite.
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  #4  
Old 09-27-2022, 06:32 PM
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Wainwright was never dominant enough and his career stats are not particularly impressive. If he retires after this year, it is unlikely he will even get to 200 wins. A career WAR of 47.1 is just not good enough.

There are so many pitchers with career WARs in the 60s that have been passed by the Hall of Fame (for now): Cone, Tiant Rueschel, Kevin Brown. I don't think anyone with a career WAR in the 40s is going to get in any time soon.
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Old 09-27-2022, 06:43 PM
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Yeah, I donít see the comparison. A nearly 20 point difference in WAR + 2 Cy Youngís and 7 top 5 finishes for Halladay.

Wainwright very good, but I donít think comparing him to Halladay is the code cracker for him.
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  #6  
Old 09-27-2022, 07:03 PM
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Agree with above, and maybe not Molins either but what wonderful careers together and all with the same team.
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  #7  
Old 09-28-2022, 05:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by D. Bergin View Post
Yeah, I donít see the comparison. A nearly 20 point difference in WAR + 2 Cy Youngís and 7 top 5 finishes for Halladay.

Wainwright very good, but I donít think comparing him to Halladay is the code cracker for him.
Well said and agree not in the HOF
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  #8  
Old 09-28-2022, 06:49 AM
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Do I think Wainwright is a HOFer? No

Do I think he will get in, eventually? Yes.
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  #9  
Old 09-28-2022, 06:54 AM
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Originally Posted by cgjackson222 View Post
Wainwright was never dominant enough and his career stats are not particularly impressive. If he retires after this year, it is unlikely he will even get to 200 wins. A career WAR of 47.1 is just not good enough.

There are so many pitchers with career WARs in the 60s that have been passed by the Hall of Fame (for now): Cone, Tiant Rueschel, Kevin Brown. I don't think anyone with a career WAR in the 40s is going to get in any time soon.
Jack Morris just got in with a WAR of 43.5. 195 wins, a much better ERA than Morris and a big part of the Cards success through the years. Very unlikely by the writers, but a pretty typical Veterans selection.
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Old 09-28-2022, 07:23 AM
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Jack Morris just got in with a WAR of 43.5. 195 wins, a much better ERA than Morris and a big part of the Cards success through the years. Very unlikely by the writers, but a pretty typical Veterans selection.
Jack Morris, along with a good chunk of the Veterans Committee selections, do not belong in the Hall of Fame. At this point, we've jumped the shark however, so it would not surprise me if Waino ended up in the Hall.

Baines, Maranville, Mazeroski, Rick Ferrell, Joe Gordon, plus all of the friends of Frankie Frisch that he pushed through once he started to head the Committee in 1967.
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  #11  
Old 09-28-2022, 08:10 AM
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Jack Morris at least had his winningest pitcher of the 80s claim (up to the individual how important wins are). I don’t think Wainwright has a similar legend.

Last edited by packs; 09-28-2022 at 09:34 AM.
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  #12  
Old 09-28-2022, 09:36 AM
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While he's had an excellent career, I'd say no to the HoF for him.

With that said, I anticipate that in the not too distant future, if it hasn't already started, there is going to be a shift in how starting pitchers are evaluated for the HoF. They are certainly used a lot more differently than they were even 10-20 years ago.
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  #13  
Old 09-28-2022, 09:48 AM
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I think deGrom will be that barometer.
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  #14  
Old 09-28-2022, 09:50 AM
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well if he would of been a closer he would been in the Hall for the number of seasons he pitched...much easier to be a closer... its not like he didnt pitch more innings than a closer...
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  #15  
Old 09-28-2022, 09:51 AM
1952boyntoncollector 1952boyntoncollector is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Econteachert205 View Post
Iím just looking at Adam Wainwright and heís a very close comp for Roy Halladay. It seems like he should be in or very close if the hall considers Halladay a Hofer. Thoughts?
I havent checked but I always look at Andy Pettite as the cutoff (but i do think ANdy should be in due to the playoffs success)
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  #16  
Old 09-28-2022, 10:46 AM
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Agree with above, and maybe not Molins either but what wonderful careers together and all with the same team.
Wow, negative against Molina? In my book I agree with statements on Waino. But I'd hope Yadi gets in - although he might not be first ballot. I'm looking at him on Jaws, and he is one of the top of this generation, with a resume a bit better than Buster Posey. He (42 WAR) and Posey (44 WAR) are very close in WAR. I know a lot of catchers don't make the HOF, but this would be a shame. Jorge Posada is comparable to both, but he was never better than Piazza or Ivan Rodriguez.

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  #17  
Old 09-28-2022, 11:31 AM
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Wow, negative against Molina? In my book I agree with statements on Waino. But I'd hope Yadi gets in - although he might not be first ballot. I'm looking at him on Jaws, and he is one of the top of this generation, with a resume a bit better than Buster Posey. He (42 WAR) and Posey (44 WAR) are very close in WAR. I know a lot of catchers don't make the HOF, but this would be a shame. Jorge Posada is comparable to both, but he was never better than Piazza or Ivan Rodriguez.

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Love Posada. Under-rated offensively as a catcher. 5 Silver Sluggers at his position. Unfortunately, not a great reputation defensively...though he wasn't horrible. Just kind of mediocre. He was great at handling pitching staffs, even if he didn't have the greatest arm to gun down base runners.

Not a HOF'er...but as borderline as a catcher can get IMO.
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  #18  
Old 09-28-2022, 11:45 AM
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Posada's situation has always bothered me. He was a really great offensive catcher. He's 9th in career home runs at the position. He played at a time when only Pudge and Piazza were better than him (two players who had cheating rumors follow them during their careers).

It's a crime he was one and done on the ballot. I don't know that he was a HOFer but he was a lot better than 99.9% of all one and done players and deserved more respect.
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  #19  
Old 09-28-2022, 11:58 AM
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Posada's situation has always bothered me. He was a really great offensive catcher. He's 9th in career home runs at the position. He played at a time when only Pudge and Piazza were better than him (two players who had cheating rumors follow them during their careers).

It's a crime he was one and done on the ballot. I don't know that he was a HOFer but he was a lot better than 99.9% of all one and done players and deserved more respect.

Those Yankee teams were so great, because they had a lot of guys that were not quite HOF'ers, but pretty damn good when you put them on a team with a bunch of other not quite HOF'ers and actual HOF'ers. (Bernie, Petitte, Posada, O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Cone, Wells, etc..)
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  #20  
Old 09-28-2022, 12:14 PM
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Bernie was another guy who I feel doesnít get the respect he has coming. He only survived two votes. His raw stats are there but I also think he had a you had to see him play aspect to him. Such a great player to watch every day. Not sure what the Hall saw in Baines that it doesnít see in Bernie. Even Baines made it to six votes.
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  #21  
Old 09-28-2022, 02:28 PM
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IP:
Halladay: 2,749.1
Wainwright: 2,562.2

Record:
Halladay 203-105
Wainwright 195-116

ERA+, ERA, FIP:
Halladay: 131, 3.38, 3.39
Wainwright: 119, 3.36, 3.44

K/9, BB/9, H/9:
Halladay: 6.9, 1.9, 8.7
Wainwright: 7.5, 2.4, 8.5

WAR:
Halladay: 64.2
Wainwright: 47.1

So WAR loves Halladay, but they are really very similar for a career and WAR has a whole lot of value judgements that are arbitrary. ERA+ prefers Halladay in context, everything else is very close. I don't think this comparison should be dismissed out of hand.

Do I think Wainwright is a HOFer? No.
Do I think Halladay should be a HOFer? Probably just misses, really pushing it.
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  #22  
Old 09-28-2022, 02:42 PM
G1911 G1911 is offline
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As for Yadier, I don't expect catchers to perform as well as 1B but a negative OPS+ is rare for a HOFer. Those are usually the guys everyone considers a mistake. I can think of only one catcher elected to the hall mostly or entirely for his defense, and that's Ray Schalk, who is derided. There's probably one or more two more, as well as 1 or 2 mysteries as to why they were elected at all.

I'm not sure that it should be this way, that we should weigh the bat so heavily for catchers, shortstops, that we shouldn't have defense only or mostly guys. There's a SS or two, Schalk, Mazeroski (also lambasted), Brooks was glove first but hit some big counting stat milestones with the bat and was slightly over league average.

42 WAR over 19 years is really bad when it comes to the Hall. He has 2 seasons over a 3.2, and 4 seasons from 3-3.2. So pretty much all of his career he was 0-3 wins by their accounting, if one is a WAR ranker. That's giving him an offensive bonus simply for even existing as a catcher, and then another bonus for his fieldwork every year. His bat is worth almost nothing.

He's passed 2,000 hits, by playing for 19 years, which has value. Longevity is worth a lot. It's not typically HOF material in itself. That's the closest he comes to a meritous traditional stat.


Posada is underrated historically, but I think also pushing it. He's got the bat to squeak in but wasn't worth much behind the plate. Posey, I am sure will make it but I am not really supportive of. 1,500 hits for a player primarily being elected as a contact hitter (yes he's a good glove, good framer, and 19 home runs a year isn't bad at all for a catcher, but his primary selling point is contact hitting) is very weak. His career is just so brief it's hard to put him in for what he actually did.
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Old 09-28-2022, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G1911 View Post
IP:
Halladay: 2,749.1
Wainwright: 2,562.2

Record:
Halladay 203-105
Wainwright 195-116

ERA+, ERA, FIP:
Halladay: 131, 3.38, 3.39
Wainwright: 119, 3.36, 3.44

K/9, BB/9, H/9:
Halladay: 6.9, 1.9, 8.7
Wainwright: 7.5, 2.4, 8.5

WAR:
Halladay: 64.2
Wainwright: 47.1

So WAR loves Halladay, but they are really very similar for a career and WAR has a whole lot of value judgements that are arbitrary. ERA+ prefers Halladay in context, everything else is very close. I don't think this comparison should be dismissed out of hand.

Do I think Wainwright is a HOFer? No.
Do I think Halladay should be a HOFer? Probably just misses, really pushing it.

I think Halladay gets the pretty substantive WAR and ERA+ advantages because he compiled most of his stats against DH hitting AL East teams in AL East sized parks in a slightly more offensive era then Wainwright.

We saw his move from the Blue Jays to the Phillies, certainly didn't hurt his stats in the slightest, until things started catching up to him, his 3rd season in Philly.

Perception is also that Halladay was dominant for a nearly 9 year straight stretch of his career. Wainwright not so much. He had much more of a start and stop and start again type of career.
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  #24  
Old 09-28-2022, 03:59 PM
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Perception is also that Halladay was dominant for a nearly 9 year straight stretch of his career. Wainwright not so much.
This is why I like looking up the actual, total numbers. Perceptions are not compelling.
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  #25  
Old 09-28-2022, 03:59 PM
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Bernie was another guy who I feel doesnít get the respect he has coming. He only survived two votes. His raw stats are there but I also think he had a you had to see him play aspect to him. Such a great player to watch every day. Not sure what the Hall saw in Baines that it doesnít see in Bernie. Even Baines made it to six votes.

Bernie gets absolutely torched by his Defensive WAR evaluation. Like a lot of Yankees during that time period, he absolutely passed the eye test in defensively. Rarely made mistakes, but he didn't have much of an arm, and like Jeter, the metrics hated him, even when it looked like he was doing everything he was supposed to be doing out there.
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  #26  
Old 09-28-2022, 04:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G1911 View Post
As for Yadier, I don't expect catchers to perform as well as 1B but a negative OPS+ is rare for a HOFer. Those are usually the guys everyone considers a mistake. I can think of only one catcher elected to the hall mostly or entirely for his defense, and that's Ray Schalk, who is derided. There's probably one or more two more, as well as 1 or 2 mysteries as to why they were elected at all.



I'm not sure that it should be this way, that we should weigh the bat so heavily for catchers, shortstops, that we shouldn't have defense only or mostly guys. There's a SS or two, Schalk, Mazeroski (also lambasted), Brooks was glove first but hit some big counting stat milestones with the bat and was slightly over league average.



42 WAR over 19 years is really bad when it comes to the Hall. He has 2 seasons over a 3.2, and 4 seasons from 3-3.2. So pretty much all of his career he was 0-3 wins by their accounting, if one is a WAR ranker. That's giving him an offensive bonus simply for even existing as a catcher, and then another bonus for his fieldwork every year. His bat is worth almost nothing.



He's passed 2,000 hits, by playing for 19 years, which has value. Longevity is worth a lot. It's not typically HOF material in itself. That's the closest he comes to a meritous traditional stat.





Posada is underrated historically, but I think also pushing it. He's got the bat to squeak in but wasn't worth much behind the plate. Posey, I am sure will make it but I am not really supportive of. 1,500 hits for a player primarily being elected as a contact hitter (yes he's a good glove, good framer, and 19 home runs a year isn't bad at all for a catcher, but his primary selling point is contact hitting) is very weak. His career is just so brief it's hard to put him in for what he actually did.
I give leeway to catchers for the wear and tear of a career. It's physically demanding on parts of the body that other fielding positions don't touch. So I give bigger points to longevity for a catcher that can play the position consistently. I know leadership has been greatly diminished, but catchers on these elite teams (Yankees, Cardinals, SF, etc) bring something special that supports the team year in and year out. Most people can name the catchers on these elite teams that were competitive for a decade. Posey, Yadi, and Jorge are always in these conversations.

On a different note, I also feel that our collective standards for the HOF have lagged behind the changing use of players. It's a big problem for pitchers, and it's a problem for catchers to. My best example is Felix Hernandez. He should be a HOF, having his career stats sabotaged by horrendous play of a terrible organization.

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  #27  
Old 09-28-2022, 05:18 PM
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I give leeway to catchers for the wear and tear of a career. It's physically demanding on parts of the body that other fielding positions don't touch. So I give bigger points to longevity for a catcher that can play the position consistently. I know leadership has been greatly diminished, but catchers on these elite teams (Yankees, Cardinals, SF, etc) bring something special that supports the team year in and year out. Most people can name the catchers on these elite teams that were competitive for a decade. Posey, Yadi, and Jorge are always in these conversations.

On a different note, I also feel that our collective standards for the HOF have lagged behind the changing use of players. It's a big problem for pitchers, and it's a problem for catchers to. My best example is Felix Hernandez. He should be a HOF, having his career stats sabotaged by horrendous play of a terrible organization.

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Longevity is worth a lot. I do not think that playing 19 years is enough to merit the hall of fame. Are Bob Boone and Jason Kendall hall of famers? You get points for being there, but there has to be something more than just being there too. Even the Hall's greatest compilers have more highlights (measured in their own, objective performance) than Yadier. Excellent glove, always there, below league average bat.

Being on a good team is, I think, no reason to elect anyone. The Hall is an individual achievement.
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  #28  
Old 09-28-2022, 06:44 PM
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Maybe Molina and Wainwright can be nominated together as a battery
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