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#1
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I have been batting about .090 on recent auctions where I have been active. Always hopeful that a new AH might be of interest, I checked out Rabbit Hole to see what was on offer, bidding etc. and must confess I was a bit underwhelmed by their offerings.
Of particular note, was the Ruth Leaf, a well-loved graded 1, which opened, to me at least, at a very high 1k and is already 2k. This marketplace is for me fraught with peril. I don't know who I am bidding against; well-heeled collectors, collecting clubs, private equity funds, AH's, Amazon or the Good Lord himself. I am basically a wholesaler, trying to build decent consignments to offer up to a few select AH's. That is proving near impossible, with exponential price records set with every auction. The sports card market has become one for the big boys. Money has made most of the cards I seek out of reach. I did retail and made out well, but I am too old to try that again. Perhaps I am perpetually stuck in the 2000 card world and still think that way. The cards haven't changed but the market certainly has. Finally, I believe the stock market is overbought and likewise the card market. Apologies for the lament. |
#2
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John, you missed an opportunity for a great thread title.
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Sounds like you're primarily buying from AHs so that you can re-sell through other AHs?
If so, then I agree that you're not likely to find many deals that you can flip that way. I could see a twist on that strategy working, if you were looking to buy obscure stuff that might get overlooked at auction, and then turn around and market it through some other venue, like eBay BIN or some fixed-price marketplace. There's no question that the everything rally these days sure makes most assets seem crazy expensive, whether we're talking about stocks or real estate or bitcoin or even gold. But while the music is playing, you kind of have to get up and dance, unless you want to sit on all of your cash and just be patient while everything keeps going nuts, in the hope that someday the music will finally stop.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#4
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I think we're in the midst of another buying frenzy similar to 2020-21. Like then, people are spending more time (and money) in the hobby to avoid looking at the god-awful world outside ... I know I am. There's also an increasing number of educated buyers going after the best of the best. What's different this time is this isn't propped up by free money from the U.S. government.
__________________
__________________ • Collecting Indianapolis-related pre-war and rare regionals, Jim Thorpe items of all kinds, and other vintage thru '80s • Successful deals with Kingcobb, Harford20, darwinbulldog, iwantitiwinit, helfrich91, kaddyshack, Marckus99, D. Bergin, Commodus the Great, Moonlight Graham, orioles70, adoo1, Nilo, JollyElm, DJCollector1, angolajones, timn1, jh691626, NiceDocter, h2oya311, orioles93, thecapeleague, gkrodg00, no10pin, Scon0072, cmoore330 Last edited by Brent G.; 10-07-2025 at 01:12 PM. |
#5
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Nic, you are right; a lot of the cards I go after are with AH's, but also buy from Ebay, B/S/T, private trades. My current business model is busted. Obscurity is a great idea, but how do you explore obscurity.
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#6
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'Brother, you best listen to me right now.'
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#7
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Hey John:
I feel the same way as you do in many respects and I assume that we are talking about vintage and not modern cards. First off, I have to agree that most/all of the cards that I REALLY want for the PC have gotten completely out of reach today. As far as buying to resell these days, I believe you can break things down into three categories. If you’ve got “big bucks” to spend (5-6 figures), a lot of money can be made right now in this overheated market, as the premium cards continue to set records (this could all change tomorrow but I am only speaking for today). If you have the funds to make 4-figure purchases regularly, the key is to buy high eye-appeal cards maybe 10-20% below comps and resell at around 20-30% above comps, highlighting the “premier for the grade” aspect. This only works if you DON’T HAVE TO sell them very quickly in order to recoup the money to keep this process going. Finally, if you’re on more of a shoestring budget, you need to buy mostly at card shows, squeeze the seller out of every last dollar that you can and resell as close to comps as you can get. Outside of these strategies, I don’t see this being a very lucrative endeavor these days. I continue to try to do this for a living and am only still around because of the giant head start that I had from my 2004-2014 collection. Last edited by bcbgcbrcb; 10-07-2025 at 02:05 PM. |
#8
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The cardboard is too damn high!!!
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#9
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All I know is that I have not taken on any debt to buy cards and worry about those that might be heavily leveraged to take on acquisitions they only plan on flipping in a couple of months. Markets ebb and flow but sometimes the dam bursts. |
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Some things that work for me, at least in terms of commerce:
Beat the bushes. I hit every antique show, flea market, yard sale and estate sale I can find. I don't always find stuff but sometimes I do. Broaden your reach. Maybe you study up on nonsports and try to make money there. Obscurity means lack of price transparency. I look for categories of items where pricing is not easily understood. Price discipline is paramount when purchasing. It is a numbers game. I have a price and that's it. If the seller says no, I walk (or at least I should; still licking my wounds over a bad deal at the show in August). Follow Mr. Keeler's advice (thread needs a card anyway) ![]() I hit 'em where they ain't. If there is a surge in excitement over Mantle, buy Aaron. If T206 has an extreme year, buy T205. In the collecting arena, I used to just grab whatever caught my eye. Now, what works best for me is to try and go after only very specific cards for specific reasons. Like, I wanted to complete my E254 Tinker-Evers-Chance, so I went after a Chance in LOTG. I went to the National looking to upgrade some specific cards.
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 10-07-2025 at 05:00 PM. |
#11
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__________________
*********** USAF Veteran 84-94 *********** |
#12
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#13
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There’s definitely been a fascinating shift in buying and selling since Covid. I’ve dialed in my PC focus to keep resources and time laser focused. I’m also increasing time and energy on maximizing my own core competencies to create the economics possible for the cards I love. Reason being is that:
eBay: Buyers have more competition than ever to win under radar auctions, thus driving up prices. Buyers are also facing elevated prices for BIN items, given a proliferation of business sellers maximizing profit, vs individual sellers less knowable about their collection’s value or happy to sell for some profit and to a help a collector fulfill a mission. Thus non professional buyer’s flipping of cards may be less profitable and require significantly more time on the platform to find and snag gems. eBay: Sellers pay higher fees (unless registering as a storefront), pay tax in some cases, and have to wait sometimes weeks after a sale for money to hit their bank, after their sold card meanders down the new eBay authentication path and then gets repackaged and sent to the buyer. AH: More total number of auctions each year drive increasing costs of iconic cards (eg 52 Topps Mantle or CJ Jackson). Greater competition of more ‘investors’ and ‘speculators’ also drives up prices, sometimes even causing one to bid against themselves. Sellers are also turning more to AHs to maximize their card’s exposure and profit, reducing availability on eBay. Seller websites, FB, IG: Growing presence on social media may be rising card prices through greater awareness, being part of a collector group, and FOMA. |
#14
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There are more collectors in the hobby than ever before. Collectors tend to pay market price for cards as they are planning on keeping them. The more collectors in the marketplace, the less room for flippers like yourself to make easy money. And frankly, I think it's for the best. The fewer flippers and middlemen trying to make a buck between the owner of a card and the collector who will end up with it long term the better for collectors.
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#15
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Yea, everybody looking for a deal, or a steal of a deal, or hustling around,, looking under " rocks" ....... me Id rather go the lazy way...sit on my butt...trying to win stuff off Ebay !
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#16
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People continue to return to the hobby. I’m 52 and my close high school buddy got back into vintage this year. I’m sure he’s not the only one. Much like during Covid times when the world turned sideways people take comfort in vintage sports cards to help cope with the increasingly scary outside world. The markets also play a role in this. Where there was a lot of free money floating around during Covid and lower income workers were impacted more negatively than people who could work remotely, now you have a year where the markets are all climbing like crazy. Who knows how long that will last but you have to think it’s driving prices up. Also this feeling that the dollar is weakening drives people to put money into other assets, like gold and like baseball cards.
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#17
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__________________
1914-1915 Cracker Jack(69/176) T206 (422/520) T205 (65/197) T3 Turkey Reds (12/126) 1949 Leaf(35/98 , 1 Premium) New York/San Francisco Giants Boston Braves St Louis Browns Baltimore Orioles Anything Deadball Era |
#18
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Of course, the government will take $6k of my profits here, so it’s not quite as extreme as it would seem before taxes, but still worked out pretty well for me.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel Last edited by raulus; 10-08-2025 at 08:14 AM. |
#19
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I see most high end cards going through the roof and most other stuff not going up or just a little. My memorabilia sales in 2025 have been nothing to write home about, and some have been downright disasterous.
Sort of like real estate in my neighborhood. The million dollar listed homes are going off a $1.5M, and the $380,000 homes are selling for basically $380,000. Maybe a lot of people are sitting on crypto profits. I just don't understand where all this money is coming from. All I hear is bitching about how expensive everything has gotten. Last edited by Snapolit1; 10-08-2025 at 08:20 AM. |
#20
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I've been in that same rut multiple times since the late 70's. I get used to prices, cant find "bargains" anymore and have a slump and work on other hobbies. Then something gets me back into it, a bargain found or something new learned, and suddenly I have to get used to a whole new price structure.
Still haven't gotten used to vg T206 commons being almost 100 |
#21
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Yoda, oh, wise one. Rather than me risking the wrath of many and a flooded inbox for what I'm about to offer up as a suggestion for salvation, please reach out to me privately, and we'll chat. I may have a solution that will prove a winner for what you're looking to do. I'm at marc@wowmoments.us and we'll talk there, then. Thnx.
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#22
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Every day more people move into the hobby to try to do stuff like this, making it harder and harder. |
#23
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"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded". Yogi Berra
Basically, the current trends reward incumbents, those lucky (or prescient) enough to have man caves packed with vintage cards bought back in the day. Everyone else has to find stuff in the wild or pony up.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 10-08-2025 at 10:55 AM. |
#24
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__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#25
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Finding a bargain is hard...it's always been hard. But with more people in the market it's harder. Occasionally, I find great bargains in an auction while lots of people are chasing the high end items. But I have to follow hundreds of items to just get one. It makes collecting slower but that's the game. The OP is trying to trade into market inefficiencies. That's called arbitrage. With lot of market participants and an efficient market, arbitrage opportunities are few and far between.
__________________
Working on the following sets: 1916 and 1917 Zeenut, 1954B, 1955B, 1971T and 1972T |
#26
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Thanks for all the positive input. Much appreciated, and I will refocus my energies and capital in a different direction. And, Nic, I loved your bit with the Mays Hire's card; a win/win and shows that the veil of obscurity can be pierced. |
#27
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I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.
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#28
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![]() Some stuff I have I probably don't have if I had to buy it today.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 10-08-2025 at 04:33 PM. |
#29
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#30
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The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing. The market is way wonky right now and something has to give eventually I keep thinking the give is gonna be a price crash but maybe the give is just going to be the common man will be priced out permanently. If I could flip a magic switch we all would wake up tomorrow to a crashed market. Nothing I would love more then 1000 dollar 33 Goudey Ruths.
Last edited by timber63401; 10-08-2025 at 07:31 PM. |
#31
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Long-term, there’s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I’m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I’m 48), and I think there’s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure. |
#32
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The upside is in the card-adjacencies. And, frankly, they are cooler than cards in many ways. “People will come Ray. People will most definitely come”. Terrance Mann |
#33
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Working on the following sets: 1916 and 1917 Zeenut, 1954B, 1955B, 1971T and 1972T |
#34
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Except when it comes to vintage sports cards it seems; someday never comes.
__________________
http://www.flickr.com/photos/calvindog/sets |
#35
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__________________
__________________ • Collecting Indianapolis-related pre-war and rare regionals, Jim Thorpe items of all kinds, and other vintage thru '80s • Successful deals with Kingcobb, Harford20, darwinbulldog, iwantitiwinit, helfrich91, kaddyshack, Marckus99, D. Bergin, Commodus the Great, Moonlight Graham, orioles70, adoo1, Nilo, JollyElm, DJCollector1, angolajones, timn1, jh691626, NiceDocter, h2oya311, orioles93, thecapeleague, gkrodg00, no10pin, Scon0072, cmoore330 |
#36
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Certainly there was a crash around 93 after the big runup from late 80s and early 90s, and then another around the Great Recession. I suppose we can debate just how far things fell each time and whether that really constitutes a full sized crash or just a minor pullback, but there were definite declines of substantial percentages.
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#37
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Just my 2 cents. kevin |
#38
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I’m not saying things can only go up. Just that a total crash seems highly unlikely - again, barring a broader economic collapse.
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#39
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I empathize with a lot that's been said in this thread. I've become a little disillusioned with the Hobby over the course of this past year. Haven't even been active here on Net54 since February of this year.
Collecting is a life long journey, I've been told this and have repeated it to others. The unfortunate thing at the moment is that cardboard has become an asset class. Vintage, modern it doesn't matter people are rapidly buying up a storm, with no end in sight. On the bright side at least the cards were purchasing are of players who actually existed and are noteworthy. I truly feel bad for the collectors of Pokemon cards and the likes, with how wild and crazy that market has become. Up is down, left is right in our Hobby nowadays. We're certainly in some turbulent economic times; Gold has hit 4000 an ounce. I don't know if their will be a proverbial crash in what we collect or even the economy. All I know is that as a 30-something whose barely making over six figures, I cannot collect the cards I want at the moment. It's either save for a house or buy cardboard. And as much as I want to do the second one, I cannot live in a house made out of Babe Ruths and Mickey Mantles
__________________
Successful Deals With: charlietheexterminator, todeen, tonyo, Santo10fan Bocabirdman (5x), 8thEastVB, JCMTiger, Rjackson44 Republicaninmass, 73toppsmann, quinnsryche (2x), Donscards. |
#40
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Sent from my SM-S721U1 using Tapatalk |
#41
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I have also started looking outside of sports at things like entertainment and historical memorabilia and items. Lots of stiff out there to collect/invest in. |
#42
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__________________
1914-1915 Cracker Jack(69/176) T206 (422/520) T205 (65/197) T3 Turkey Reds (12/126) 1949 Leaf(35/98 , 1 Premium) New York/San Francisco Giants Boston Braves St Louis Browns Baltimore Orioles Anything Deadball Era |
#43
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James, I didn't have the money to spend on cards the way I wanted to as I supported and raised my family so I made a deal with myself: I eat when I kill. The money coming out finances what goes back in. if I don't have it I don't spend it. If I want to go after a card, I figure out what I can sell to do it. And I try to do it profitably. A surge like the one we're in now, ride that sucker like a big wave after a storm. This stuff is cyclical. There are very few cards that are not going to come back up for sale in the medium term. I hold the few that don't. The rest I enjoy until the price is right and then I get out. For now. I've built then sold a 1954 Topps set 3 times. Starting over is more fun than holding static.
Like it or not, we are all flippers and investors in some respect. Sure, you may not sell but your heirs will. Or your kids will when you are salted away in a facility obliviously drooling into your oatmeal. So why not just go with it and admit that the finances play a role? Trust me, you'll feel better not being intellectually dishonest. I can only speak to my experience. Once I got real with myself and learned to hold two ideas in my mind at once (that cards are fun and that cards are investments), I found it very freeing. It is so much easier to consciously aim for both profit and fun than to pretend the money side is irrelevant or nonexistent. I discovered that when I did that, my hesitation at buying a really special piece went away because I understood that I could and would be able to sell it down the line after I finish enjoying it. Cards aren't fleeting like a good meal, they are permanent, like old man stink in a recliner. My friends who don't collect consume their fun; I invest in it. It also opens your mind to fresh angles, like Ryan's pivot to card-adjacent stuff. Me too. Bought my first slabbed ticket recently, and it wasn't baseball. ![]() Ayrton Senna's 1st F1 Victory. I love old cardboard. It is a happy place for me. I also love turning a profit on old cardboard. That it is a happy place for me. Collectors get the endorphin hits of acquisition and ownership. I get three endorphin hits for my money: when I buy, when I own, when I cash out.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 10-09-2025 at 09:10 PM. |
#44
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Very well said, Adam. And that is an absolutely fantastic piece for Senna. Shame he passed so young, and so tragically.
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Successful Deals With: charlietheexterminator, todeen, tonyo, Santo10fan Bocabirdman (5x), 8thEastVB, JCMTiger, Rjackson44 Republicaninmass, 73toppsmann, quinnsryche (2x), Donscards. |
#45
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#46
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I also think there are more guys out there in my age group than you might think -
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My Monster Progess Complete Set......: 238 / 520 : 45% HOF Cards..........: 009 / 076 : 12% Southern League.: 000 / 048 : 00% Minor League......: 055 / 086 : 41% Portrait Cards......: 077 / 180 : 43% Horizontal Cards.: 000 / 006 : 00% |
#47
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Every time I see the thread title, my blue-eyed soul, two-part harmony brain immediately begins singing...
hallandoatesoutoftouch.jpg
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All the cool kids love my YouTube Channel:
Elm's Adventures in Cardboard Land ![]() https://www.youtube.com/@TheJollyElm Looking to trade? Here's my bucket: https://www.flickr.com/photos/152396...57685904801706 “I was such a dangerous hitter I even got intentional walks during batting practice.” Casey Stengel Spelling "Yastrzemski" correctly without needing to look it up since the 1980s. Overpaying yesterday is simply underpaying tomorrow. ![]() |
#48
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Of all of the people that I used to know Most never adjusted to the great big world I see them lurking in book stores Working for the Public Radio Carrying their babies around in a sack on their back Moving careful and slow It's money that matters Hear what I say It's money that matters In the USA All of these people are much brighter than I In any fair system they would flourish and thrive But they barely survive They eke out a living and they barely survive When I was a young boy, maybe thirteen I took a hard look around me and asked what does it mean? So I talked to my father, and he didn't know And I talked to my friend and he didn't know And I talked to my brother and he didn't know And I talked to everybody that I knew It's money that matters Now you know that it's true It's money that matters Whatever you do Then I talked to a man lived up on the county line I was washing his car with a friend of mine He was a little fat guy in a red jumpsuit I said "You look kind of funny" He said "I know that I do" "But I got a great big house on the hill here And a great big blonde wife inside it And a great big pool in my backyard and another great big pool beside it Sonny it's money that matters, hear what I say It's money that matters in the USA It's money that matters Now you know that it's true It's money that matters whatever you do --Randy Newman
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 10-10-2025 at 06:08 PM. |
#49
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