Outed cards, now including a 130K gain on an Aaron rookie

benjulmag · #1 10-23-2019, 10:24 AM

I was thinking of something a bit different.

If a century old card is trimmed, wouldn't its trimmed border(s), newly exposed to the atmosphere, exhibit different chemical characteristics than the untrimmed borders, which difference could be detected and measured?

I do not have any expertise in chemistry, so the above is a question, not a statement. If trimmed borders do in fact exhibit chemical differences, I would think that would be a great way to detect alterations. And one would not even need a base mark. Assuming at least one of the borders is untrimmed, all one would need to look for is whether there are any different chemical characteristics between the borders of the same card.

I would think too one could use the same concept to detect cards that had been recolored.

I get it that do this one would need to take the card out of the slab. But so what, if that is the price it takes to know with a much greater degree of certainty if the card is altered?

ullmandds · #2 10-23-2019, 10:25 AM

i think for a machine to detect trim...as well as other alterations/enhancements... you'd need a 3d scan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I was thinking of something a bit different.

If a century old card is trimmed, wouldn't its trimmed border(s), newly exposed to the atmosphere, exhibit different physical characteristics than the untrimmed borders, which difference could be detected and measured?

I do not have any expertise in chemistry, so the above is a question, not a statement. If trimmed borders do in fact exhibit such physical differences, I would think that would be a great way to detect alterations. And one would not even need a base mark. Assuming at least one of the borders is untrimmed, all one would need to look for is whether there are any different physical characteristics between the borders of the same card.

I would think too one could use the same concept to detect cards that had been recolored.

I get it that do this one would need to take the card out of the slab. But so what, if that is the price it takes to know with a much greater degree of certainty if the card is altered?

Peter_Spaeth · #3 10-23-2019, 10:39 AM

I think the best way to detect trimming is to check the name of the submitter.

tschock · #4 10-23-2019, 10:53 AM

Can we settle for less than full automated grading? How about automated size determination, edge evenness, black light alterations, et all (surface wrinkles?). These would be easy to implement with a simple high res scan and some programming. The intent of the analysis is to weed out obvious bad/altered cards, not to grade them. Cards would fall into 3 categories: Pass, Fail (altered), more review needed. Fails are rejected and the other 2 go through the same process as before for actual grading.

Heck, based on how many trimmed cards are getting through, if they were to implement this, it would easily cut PSA's return time in half.

ullmandds · #5 10-23-2019, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tschock

Can we settle for less than full automated grading? How about automated size determination, edge evenness, black light alterations, et all (surface wrinkles?). These would be easy to implement with a simple high res scan and some programming. The intent of the analysis is to weed out obvious bad/altered cards, not to grade them. Cards would fall into 3 categories: Pass, Fail (altered), more review needed. Fails are rejected and the other 2 go through the same process as before for actual grading.

Heck, based on how many trimmed cards are getting through, if they were to implement this, it would easily cut PSA's return time in half.

I'm still not totally convinced trim can even be detected...machine or no machine??????? Especially if a card falls within acceptable tolerances.

And what about factory cut cards that are smaller?

perezfan · #6 10-23-2019, 12:01 PM

Lots of banter about technology...

But a very low-tech ruler, magnifying glass, and blacklight would have been enough to detect the vast majority of altered cards that have gotten through (thousands). PSA either does not take the time to use these simple tools, or something else is going on.

Sure, some alterations are tougher to detect, but there are bigger issues at play. Perhaps they should be looking at who is submitting the cards, and the other cards within the submission. That would be a good low-tech starting point. Then down the line, perhaps improved technology can be looked at.

But will PSA really invest heavily in that? Doubtful... If that's the future, it's going to take a new player to step in.

drcy · #7 10-23-2019, 12:20 PM

That thousands of alterations have been identified, and are continuing to be identified, by collectors hundreds of miles away from the physical cards says a lot. They've identified ways to identify alterations that are not being used by grading companies. Their methods include looking at images, and provenance. These methods will continue to be used, whether or not grading cards use them and, no doubt, sometimes try to hide provenance.

Thus, grading is done not just by the grading companies but by the hobby. Hive mind, some might call it. If graders can't or won't identify alterations, others will be doing it for them publicly.

Of course, part of it is that buyers have to quit being dumbasses, and use some old fashioned common sense, which might be a far bridge to cross

Fuddjcal · #8 10-25-2019, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think the best way to detect trimming is to check the name of the submitter.

you know, I believe that would be a good start

Never going to happen because that would be way too easy. They want to silence the narrative and do nothing. That makes them complicit to the crime, IMHO.

steve B · #9 10-24-2019, 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I was thinking of something a bit different.

If a century old card is trimmed, wouldn't its trimmed border(s), newly exposed to the atmosphere, exhibit different chemical characteristics than the untrimmed borders, which difference could be detected and measured?

I do not have any expertise in chemistry, so the above is a question, not a statement. If trimmed borders do in fact exhibit chemical differences, I would think that would be a great way to detect alterations. And one would not even need a base mark. Assuming at least one of the borders is untrimmed, all one would need to look for is whether there are any different chemical characteristics between the borders of the same card.

I would think too one could use the same concept to detect cards that had been recolored.

I get it that do this one would need to take the card out of the slab. But so what, if that is the price it takes to know with a much greater degree of certainty if the card is altered?

As a concept, that should actually be possible. The edge should pick up "stuff" from the atmosphere, and that "stuff" should turn up as different when looked at with something like a spectrograph.

I'm not sure it could be done affordably.

And a few things like one edge sitting against a box for decades while the opposite edge was exposed to the air could lead to a false indication of trimming. Outside of some specialized units, the results take a bit of interpreting.

Bigdaddy · #10 10-24-2019, 02:28 PM

Agreed, that a technology solution would only be as good as the database that was used for learning. But that is the same as a human - they are only as good as their knowledge extends. However a high-res scan (or other measurement method) can pick up things that the human eye cannot.

Personally, I think one of the biggest hurdles for technology would be that if it were more repeatable than human graders, and I don't think that is a stretch, that it would virtually eliminate re-subs. Not good for PSA's business model.

OK, carry on. Back to discussion of the cards.

perezfan · #11 10-24-2019, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

Agreed, that a technology solution would only be as good as the database that was used for learning. But that is the same as a human - they are only as good as their knowledge extends. However a high-res scan (or other measurement method) can pick up things that the human eye cannot.

Personally, I think one of the biggest hurdles for technology would be that if it were more repeatable than human graders, and I don't think that is a stretch, that it would virtually eliminate re-subs. Not good for PSA's business model.

OK, carry on. Back to discussion of the cards.

The part highlighted in bold is just one of the reasons PSA will not adopt it. That and the extra cost + time of implementation. They are all about profits.

And if it is not just oversight, negligence, ineptitude or time constraints that have produced these thousands of misgraded cards (and is something more nefarious, along the lines of favoritism or complicity) then all the talk in the world about technology won't help us a bit.

The Henri Richard Card alone should tell us it is not a lack of technology that's the problem here...

Stampsfan · #12 10-24-2019, 05:42 PM

IMO both left and right borders look trimmed

As for technology, the whole concept of AI is the system will �learn� as it goes. The more samples, the more reference points it will have. Eventually all the variants will be documented. The database will grow over time.

Will mistakes be made? Sure. But the program will be tweaked as it goes and will become better as it goes. �Outed� cards would be identified in the system and would then get better at identifying issues over time.

It�s an evolution and not a revolution.

Peter_Spaeth · #13 10-24-2019, 08:08 PM

Step up to the plate Will Jaimet, apparently you're next on BODA's broadcast of The Card is Trimmed.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=5650

swarmee · #14 10-24-2019, 09:21 PM

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=jaimet
Oh, Jaimet's one of the original ones that kicked this whole thing off.

Bigdaddy · #15 10-24-2019, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Step up to the plate Will Jaimet, apparently you're next on BODA's broadcast of The Card is Trimmed.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=5650

What's crazy, and incomprehensible to me, is that there is that much difference in price between a PSA 7 and a PSA 8. How is that sustainable in the long run, especially when that pricing model is based on fraud?

Thank you BODA for shining the light on this deceit and fraud.

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