Skyrocketing Card Values Lately - Theories?

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I think there are three factors at work all of which have to do with wealthy collectors (who are the only ones who can afford to affect the market for high value stuff).

1) Wealthy collectors aren't getting economically hammered by the lockdowns and resulting layoffs like everyone else is;

2) Wealthy collectors are bored and stuck at home. They aren't able to spend money on their other hobbies right now, so they are spending more on cards.

3) Stocks are pretty risky right now so they may also see plowing money into cards as a safe investment.

If any of these three things change, you might see a price correction.

I agree with this, although the change would have to be very significant to see a meaningful price correction in vintage. More likely the economy returns to something like normalcy and we see a slow march higher.

My comments are limited to vintage baseball cards. That’s what this board is about.

[packs]

I don't know if I would call buying Zion rookies an investment. More like speculation. And there's no fun in speculating unless the risk and rewards are high; so you've got a lot of people pumping right now. But if Zion is Greg Oden and Luka cools off you'll see the same dump.

[maniac_73]

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

[packs]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

But there's a lot of money to make after the PUMP. You just don't want to still be left holding the bag after the dump.

[Phil68]

I'm astounded that a 1981 Topps Magic Johnson PSA 10 has gone from a $400-$500 card to a $3700-$4000 card in less than 2 years.
A bought a 1981 Bird last year way above the current market (at that time) for $1125.00 because it was truly a spectacular card. I figured I bought well into the upside, but I love the card so I just moved on and enjoyed it. I have come to find it's a $4k card now. That is ridiculous. I guess it only takes 2-3 guys to blow a market out of sight, but I have never imagined how hot these cards could have become. Frankly, I hope the market comes down quite a bit. There are many cards I figured would creep up over time, but I had plenty of time to find and collect. Now I'm totally priced out. I loved Magic. I wanted an exceptional 1981 Topps card of him. No chance, Lol.

[Exhibitman]

Guys, basketball and baseball are two completely different markets.

--Basketball cards truly are global in reach. I've seen card shows in Europe and they focus heavily on basketball. Asia also has tremendous basketball collecting.

--Nearly all basketball cards are postwar, so there isn't the vintage-postwar-modern gap and resulting disdain that baseball card collecting has. No derisive references to "shiny crap".

--The better question is whether basketball cards are catching up to baseball and football. I think that with the exception of certain mainstream sets and stars basketball cards have been underpriced for years. The proof is that prices are going up across a broad swath of basketball, not just MJ, LeBron and current speculative cards like Zion. For example, a PSA 8 Dr. J. RC (1972 Topps) has more than doubled in the last year. Now, is it overpriced at $1900 or was it criminally underpriced at $800? The breadth of price increases in basketball signals that something is up besides just boredom.

Not to say that the other theories are wrong. Far from it. There is a lot of easy money sloshing around right now. Lots of white collar and professional class workers did not lose their jobs and haven't seen the reductions in earnings that were initially feared, and some of them (the ones who own small businesses) are even receiving substantial free money in the form of forgivable PPP loans from the SBA. Add lots of free time and limited entertainment options to the mix (which reduces expenditures on event attendance, vacations, movies, concerts, restaurants, etc., to zero) and you get some cash freed up for collecting.

I don't think the prices on basketball will hold but I don't see a slide back down to where they were either. I've sold off all of my early MJ cards--way too much profit there to leave it alone--but I am looking for other cards actively to fill out my earlier basketball collection at the right prices.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, basketball and baseball are two completely different markets.

--Basketball cards truly are global in reach. I've seen card shows in Europe and they focus heavily on basketball. Asia also has tremendous basketball collecting.

--Nearly all basketball cards are postwar, so there isn't the vintage-postwar-modern gap and resulting disdain that baseball card collecting has. No derisive references to "shiny crap".

--The better question is whether basketball cards are catching up to baseball and football. I think that with the exception of certain mainstream sets and stars basketball cards have been underpriced for years. The proof is that prices are going up across a broad swath of basketball, not just MJ, LeBron and current speculative cards like Zion. For example, a PSA 8 Dr. J. RC (1972 Topps) has more than doubled in the last year. Now, is it overpriced at $1900 or was it criminally underpriced at $800? The breadth of price increases in basketball signals that something is up besides just boredom.

Not to say that the other theories are wrong. Far from it. There is a lot of easy money sloshing around right now. Lots of white collar and professional class workers did not lose their jobs and haven't seen the reductions in earnings that were initially feared, and some of them (the ones who own small businesses) are even receiving substantial free money in the form of forgivable PPP loans from the SBA. Add lots of free time and limited entertainment options to the mix (which reduces expenditures on event attendance, vacations, movies, concerts, restaurants, etc., to zero) and you get some cash freed up for collecting.

I don't think the prices on basketball will hold but I don't see a slide back down to where they were either. I've sold off all of my early MJ cards--way too much profit there to leave it alone--but I am looking for other cards actively to fill out my earlier basketball collection at the right prices.

Well said. Especially, the global reach of basketball and the vintage-postwar-modern gap.

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, basketball and baseball are two completely different markets.

--Basketball cards truly are global in reach. I've seen card shows in Europe and they focus heavily on basketball. Asia also has tremendous basketball collecting.

--Nearly all basketball cards are postwar, so there isn't the vintage-postwar-modern gap and resulting disdain that baseball card collecting has. No derisive references to "shiny crap".

--The better question is whether basketball cards are catching up to baseball and football. I think that with the exception of certain mainstream sets and stars basketball cards have been underpriced for years. The proof is that prices are going up across a broad swath of basketball, not just MJ, LeBron and current speculative cards like Zion. For example, a PSA 8 Dr. J. RC (1972 Topps) has more than doubled in the last year. Now, is it overpriced at $1900 or was it criminally underpriced at $800? The breadth of price increases in basketball signals that something is up besides just boredom.

Not to say that the other theories are wrong. Far from it. There is a lot of easy money sloshing around right now. Lots of white collar and professional class workers did not lose their jobs and haven't seen the reductions in earnings that were initially feared, and some of them (the ones who own small businesses) are even receiving substantial free money in the form of forgivable PPP loans from the SBA. Add lots of free time and limited entertainment options to the mix (which reduces expenditures on event attendance, vacations, movies, concerts, restaurants, etc., to zero) and you get some cash freed up for collecting.

I don't think the prices on basketball will hold but I don't see a slide back down to where they were either. I've sold off all of my early MJ cards--way too much profit there to leave it alone--but I am looking for other cards actively to fill out my earlier basketball collection at the right prices.

I agree that the global reach of basketball is truly the X-Factor here. I'm from NJ/Philadelphia and I remember recently hearing a story about a US traveler seeing a Joel Embiid billboard in India of all places.

And of course eBay has the International depot for mailing which i think is in Kentucky, so that helps open the door to selling to anyone in the world. Russia, China, whoever.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by packs

But there's a lot of money to make after the PUMP. You just don't want to still be left holding the bag after the dump.

I have been hearing this for a long time. Heard it about Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Derek Jeter, Lebron, Mike Trout and many others. Facts are all
Of them are way up over there crazy rookie prices. If Zion performs the cards will go even higher. We may not think it’s logical or agree with it but that’s how the history of that market is. Same with the complaints about buying something rare in high grade vs just rare. Not everyone feels the same way we do and the market can go up and down on either. Of course there will be corrections along the way. Almost nothing always goes up every sale. But pretending the market is how we think it should be instead of how it is doesn’t lend itself to a credible discussion.

[Exhibitman]

That's true, Glyn. Only thing I'd add to that is not to forget the enjoyment component of this hobby. I can't believe I am saying this, but money isn't everything. Some stuff you buy because it is a good deal, and on those things I strive to be as bloodless and coldly calculating as I can. But some things you buy because you want them, and depriving yourself of them because they aren't immediately profitable is not a good place to be. A smart guy (think his name was Leon ) told me years ago, when I was pondering spending 10% more than I wanted on a tough card, that it wasn't worth sweating that spending increment on something that I wanted, and he was right. I've never regretted spending a bit more than a 'deal' price on something I really wanted and could afford. Ironically, in nearly every case where I've done that the cards have gone up in value way more than the rate of inflation or interest or whatever, so they were good investments by and large too.

[bounce]

Lots of factors that are pushing the market higher, agree with DPeck that there seems to be money coming in from all directions and it's coming at all kinds of different items.

I've definitely noticed "lower" feedback scores on many of my eBay sales, which is where I sell most of my cards.

One thing to keep in mind - while I appreciate the discussion of the "good investment" cards have been, I think it's important to just remember that it's not "realized" until it's cash in the bank. Until then, it's "paper gains" and those don't spend too easily.

Personally, I've been trying very hard to "trade up" into more stable quality cards for my collection, using the funds from the "rocket ships" people have mentioned - Lebron, Kobe, Trout, Brady, others, etc.

I have bought some various modern cards, too, but again I've tried to be pretty picky about those. At least for me, the higher prices have been great because it's encouraged me to pare down the number of cards I own, but it's also affording me some opportunities on some things I'd normally otherwise pass on.

Plus, I'm having fun! At least for me, that's got to be a big component. It's still a hobby for me, not a job.