Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

btcarfagno · #1 07-22-2020, 04:37 PM

To summarize:

"Road Koufax" was the best pitcher in baseball twice (1963 and 1966) and he was also either best or (more likely) second best one year (1965). "Road Koufax" doesn't sniff the top 20 in any other year. "Road Koufax" had gaudy strikeout numbers for the most part, although 1962 (196) and 1964 (198) are a bit pedestrian.

The real Sandy Koufax did have four World Series rings. One of which (1955) he did little to earn. One of which (1959) he was a back of the rotation starter/reliever and two of which he was the ace of the staff and series MVP. In his 7 career World Series starts he put up gaudy numbers even with a pedestrian record of 4-3.

Knowing that the above player had such a short career, is he a Hall Of Famer? If you use the Kirby Puckett "what could have been had he not gotten hurt" method then absolutely yes. But is the above player the GREATEST left handed pitcher of all time?

The thought is laughable.

cammb · #2 07-22-2020, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

To summarize:

"Road Koufax" was the best pitcher in baseball twice (1963 and 1966) and he was also either best or (more likely) second best one year (1965). "Road Koufax" doesn't sniff the top 20 in any other year. "Road Koufax" had gaudy strikeout numbers for the most part, although 1962 (196) and 1964 (198) are a bit pedestrian.

The real Sandy Koufax did have four World Series rings. One of which (1955) he did little to earn. One of which (1959) he was a back of the rotation starter/reliever and two of which he was the ace of the staff and series MVP. In his 7 career World Series starts he put up gaudy numbers even with a pedestrian record of 4-3.

Knowing that the above player had such a short career, is he a Hall Of Famer? If you use the Kirby Puckett "what could have been had he not gotten hurt" method then absolutely yes. But is the above player the GREATEST left handed pitcher of all time?

The thought is laughable.

What is laughable is to think he is not a hofer. we went from an opinion that he was the best left hander to does he belong in the Hall of Fame.

btcarfagno · #3 07-22-2020, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cammb

What is laughable is to think he is not a hofer. we went from an opinion that he was the best left hander to does he belong in the Hall of Fame.

"road Koufax" is barely a Hall Of Famer. Chavez Ravine aided Koufax is a legend. Try to keep up.

packs · #4 07-22-2020, 05:36 PM

I genuinely do not understand how someone can disregard personal accounts of people who saw someone pitch. Someone said before that Phil Niekro was almost as valuable as Pedro Martinez because of some stat they rattled off. Anyone who saw either guy pitch would never think twice about Phil Niekro.

btcarfagno · #5 07-22-2020, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I genuinely do not understand how someone can disregard personal accounts of people who saw someone pitch. Someone said before that Phil Niekro was almost as valuable as Pedro Martinez because of some stat they rattled off. Anyone who saw either guy pitch would never think twice about Phil Niekro.

Because there is value in being good to very good for a ridiculously long period of time. In their prime it isn't close. Starting probably in each of their tenth best seasons on down, Niekro was far better. It isn't sexy but it's true. That gives him value.

timn1 · #6 07-22-2020, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I genuinely do not understand how someone can disregard personal accounts of people who saw someone pitch. .

Well do you think it could be, just maybe, because nobody has seen everybody pitch?

You saw X pitch, I saw Y pitch, and Ted Z saw Eddie Plank pitch

What basis does that give us for comparison? Stats are the only measures we have that aren’t completely subjective, and even they have to be massaged. But personal accounts are a joke.

Tabe · #7 07-22-2020, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I genuinely do not understand how someone can disregard personal accounts of people who saw someone pitch. Someone said before that Phil Niekro was almost as valuable as Pedro Martinez because of some stat they rattled off. Anyone who saw either guy pitch would never think twice about Phil Niekro.

Because memories are notoriously unreliable. Because guys naturally filter out memories/experiences that don't fit the narrative. Because they focus on a few short years or whatever. Hank Aaron hit .372 with 7 homers against Koufax. Yet Aaron would still about him like he was this unhittable monster.

packs · #8 07-22-2020, 07:13 PM

I guess I should say when you�re talking about two players you saw yourself. There has to be some room for knowing what it felt like to watch Pedro pitch and knowing what it felt like to watch Niekro pitch.

Mark17 · #9 07-23-2020, 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I guess I should say when you�re talking about two players you saw yourself. There has to be some room for knowing what it felt like to watch Pedro pitch and knowing what it felt like to watch Niekro pitch.

We are talking about who was best, not feelings and emotions.

Facing a guy like Sam McDowell or Sandy Koufax or Walter Johnson or Nolan Ryan will obviously "feel" different than facing a knuckleball pitcher like Niekro, or a junkball pitcher with brains and control, like Tommy John.

But there are guys who had more success hitting heat rather than butterflies.

brewing · #10 07-23-2020, 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tabe

Because memories are notoriously unreliable. Because guys naturally filter out memories/experiences that don't fit the narrative. Because they focus on a few short years or whatever. Hank Aaron hit .372 with 7 homers against Koufax. Yet Aaron would still about him like he was this unhittable monster.

Exactly. Has there ever been a hitter that hasn't said the pitchers he faced were the greatest?

G1911 · #11 07-23-2020, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I genuinely do not understand how someone can disregard personal accounts of people who saw someone pitch. Someone said before that Phil Niekro was almost as valuable as Pedro Martinez because of some stat they rattled off. Anyone who saw either guy pitch would never think twice about Phil Niekro.

I don't think you actually read the post.

cammb · #12 07-22-2020, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

"road Koufax" is barely a Hall Of Famer. Chavez Ravine aided Koufax is a legend. Try to keep up.

In your post, #410, YOU posed the question "Is he a hall of famer"?
Try to keep up .

btcarfagno · #13 07-22-2020, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cammb

In your post, #410, YOU posed the question "Is he a hall of famer"?
Try to keep up .

Is "Road Koufax" a real HOFer. That's part of that post as well. Reading comprehension.

cammb · #14 07-22-2020, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Is "Road Koufax" a real HOFer. That's part of that post as well. Reading comprehension.

uh

Oh, I see . You made up an imaginary Koufax and you want to know if the imaginary Koufax is a Hall of famer

btcarfagno · #15 07-22-2020, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cammb

uh

Oh, I see . You made up an imaginary Koufax and you want to know if the imaginary Koufax is a Hall of famer

Correct. Showing that Koufax, without the benefit of his home park, might have been a marginal at best HOFer. Yet no one ever mentions this about him. With Larry Walker it's all you hear. But Koufax? His home/road splits during his video game number seasons never comes up...as astounding as the splits truly are.

CMIZ5290 · #16 07-23-2020, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

"road Koufax" is barely a Hall Of Famer. Chavez Ravine aided Koufax is a legend. Try to keep up.

Koufax did in fact win three cy youngs, 1963, 1965, and 1966....And all were unanimous votes!

Shoeless Moe · #17 07-23-2020, 08:09 PM

Sandy Koufax first year HOF eligible he got 86.9% of the vote

Randy Johnson first year HOF eligible he got 97.3% of the vote

The Big Unit baby!!!!

btcarfagno · #18 07-23-2020, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Koufax did in fact win three cy youngs, 1963, 1965, and 1966....And all were unanimous votes!

Statistically Marichal was better in 1965. 63 and 66 were no brainers though. And the only reason he didn't win in 1964 was...wait for it...his road ERA that year was 2.93.

While his home ERA was 0.85.

That is not a typo.

2.93 vs 0.85

But sure. Nothing to see here.

rats60 · #19 07-23-2020, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Statistically Marichal was better in 1965. 63 and 66 were no brainers though. And the only reason he didn't win in 1964 was...wait for it...his road ERA that year was 2.93.

While his home ERA was 0.85.

That is not a typo.

2.93 vs 0.85sssz

But sure. Nothing to see here.

Wrong. The reason he didn’t win in 1964 was 20-9, 1.65 ERA, 11 shutouts 2.39 FIP all lead the league by Dean Chance. He also had a 1.07 ERA at home and 2.25 on the road. Koufax probably wins if there was a CY Young award in each league. Also, Koufax had an ERA+ of 186. That led the league by 28%. So there is nothing to see here.

As far as 1965, Koufax 2.04 ERA Marichal 2.13, Koufax 26 wins, Marichal 22, W/L% Koufax .765% Marichal .629, WHIP Koufax .855 Marichal .914, H/9 Koufax 5.792 Marichal 6.826, K/9 Koufax 10.242 Marichal 7.314, IP 335.2 Marichal 295.1, Ks Koufax 382 Marichal 240 CG Koufax 27 Marichal 24 K/BB Koufax 5.380 Marichal 5.217 FIP Koufax 1.93 Marichal 2.59. All led the NL.

Marichal led in shutouts 10-8, BB/9 1.402 -1.904 and your favorite ERA+ 169-160.

This is pretty obvious in Koufax’s favor thus Koufax was the unanimous Cy Young winner. Even the Giants writers voted Koufax. Koufax also led in fWAR 10.0 to Marichal 6.8 although somehow bWAR had Marichal led 10.3 to 8.1 showing how worthless WAR really is.

In 1965 Marichal leads Koufax by 169-160 in ERA+ and that translates into 10.3-8.1 spread in bWAR despite Koufax pitching more inning, setting a record for strikeouts in a season, having a better WHIP, FIP, etc. Yet in 1964 Koufax leads Drysdale in ERA+ 186-147, 41% as well as WHIP and FIP, but Drysdale pitches more innings and has more strikeouts so he has a higher b WAR 7.8-7.3. These stats are just made up, there is no transparency and they makes absolutely no sense. I have been asking for years for someone to give a scientific explanation and I get nothing. I am not a sheep. I think for myself. I am not going to accept something just because someone says trust me. The only stats that are reliable are ones based in math and scientific method, the ones that have reason and can be calculated. That is why I go by ERA, WHIP and FIP.

They say Koufax is the best lefty and the only one close is Kershaw. If he was even decent in postseason, one could make a case, but his dreadful 9 postseason history make it impossible to pick him. Some might want longevity of an above average pitcher,l but I am taking Koufax’s 12 years with 5-6 years of brilliance and championships over 20+ of good but never great and not winning because of it.

earlywynnfan · #20 07-24-2020, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Wrong. The reason he didn�t win in 1964 was 20-9, 1.65 ERA, 11 shutouts 2.39 FIP all lead the league by Dean Chance. He also had a 1.07 ERA at home and 2.25 on the road. Koufax probably wins if there was a CY Young award in each league. Also, Koufax had an ERA+ of 186. That led the league by 28%. So there is nothing to see here.

As far as 1965, Koufax 2.04 ERA Marichal 2.13, Koufax 26 wins, Marichal 22, W/L% Koufax .765% Marichal .629, WHIP Koufax .855 Marichal .914, H/9 Koufax 5.792 Marichal 6.826, K/9 Koufax 10.242 Marichal 7.314, IP 335.2 Marichal 295.1, Ks Koufax 382 Marichal 240 CG Koufax 27 Marichal 24 K/BB Koufax 5.380 Marichal 5.217 FIP Koufax 1.93 Marichal 2.59. All led the NL.

Marichal led in shutouts 10-8, BB/9 1.402 -1.904 and your favorite ERA+ 169-160.

This is pretty obvious in Koufax�s favor thus Koufax was the unanimous Cy Young winner. Even the Giants writers voted Koufax. Koufax also led in fWAR 10.0 to Marichal 6.8 although somehow bWAR had Marichal led 10.3 to 8.1 showing how worthless WAR really is.

In 1965 Marichal leads Koufax by 169-160 in ERA+ and that translates into 10.3-8.1 spread in bWAR despite Koufax pitching more inning, setting a record for strikeouts in a season, having a better WHIP, FIP, etc. Yet in 1964 Koufax leads Drysdale in ERA+ 186-147, 41% as well as WHIP and FIP, but Drysdale pitches more innings and has more strikeouts so he has a higher b WAR 7.8-7.3. These stats are just made up, there is no transparency and they makes absolutely no sense. I have been asking for years for someone to give a scientific explanation and I get nothing. I am not a sheep. I think for myself. I am not going to accept something just because someone says trust me. The only stats that are reliable are ones based in math and scientific method, the ones that have reason and can be calculated. That is why I go by ERA, WHIP and FIP.

They say Koufax is the best lefty and the only one close is Kershaw. If he was even decent in postseason, one could make a case, but his dreadful 9 postseason history make it impossible to pick him. Some might want longevity of an above average pitcher,l but I am taking Koufax�s 12 years with 5-6 years of brilliance and championships over 20+ of good but never great and not winning because of it.

You must have missed my earlier post, please explain why bWAR is "made up" but you use fWAR to make a point. Also, why would you use ERA+ in a comparison when it helps Koufax, but say it doesn't count when it doesn't have him come out ahead? You keep saying that Grove is obviously better than Koufax because of all the strikeouts and shutouts, but when someone has more strikeouts, you want to look at other stats?

howard38 · #21 07-24-2020, 07:48 AM

/

btcarfagno · #22 07-24-2020, 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Wrong. The reason he didn’t win in 1964 was 20-9, 1.65 ERA, 11 shutouts 2.39 FIP all lead the league by Dean Chance. He also had a 1.07 ERA at home and 2.25 on the road. Koufax probably wins if there was a CY Young award in each league. Also, Koufax had an ERA+ of 186. That led the league by 28%. So there is nothing to see here.

As far as 1965, Koufax 2.04 ERA Marichal 2.13, Koufax 26 wins, Marichal 22, W/L% Koufax .765% Marichal .629, WHIP Koufax .855 Marichal .914, H/9 Koufax 5.792 Marichal 6.826, K/9 Koufax 10.242 Marichal 7.314, IP 335.2 Marichal 295.1, Ks Koufax 382 Marichal 240 CG Koufax 27 Marichal 24 K/BB Koufax 5.380 Marichal 5.217 FIP Koufax 1.93 Marichal 2.59. All led the NL.

Marichal led in shutouts 10-8, BB/9 1.402 -1.904 and your favorite ERA+ 169-160.

This is pretty obvious in Koufax’s favor thus Koufax was the unanimous Cy Young winner. Even the Giants writers voted Koufax. Koufax also led in fWAR 10.0 to Marichal 6.8 although somehow bWAR had Marichal led 10.3 to 8.1 showing how worthless WAR really is.

In 1965 Marichal leads Koufax by 169-160 in ERA+ and that translates into 10.3-8.1 spread in bWAR despite Koufax pitching more inning, setting a record for strikeouts in a season, having a better WHIP, FIP, etc. Yet in 1964 Koufax leads Drysdale in ERA+ 186-147, 41% as well as WHIP and FIP, but Drysdale pitches more innings and has more strikeouts so he has a higher b WAR 7.8-7.3. These stats are just made up, there is no transparency and they makes absolutely no sense. I have been asking for years for someone to give a scientific explanation and I get nothing. I am not a sheep. I think for myself. I am not going to accept something just because someone says trust me. The only stats that are reliable are ones based in math and scientific method, the ones that have reason and can be calculated. That is why I go by ERA, WHIP and FIP.

They say Koufax is the best lefty and the only one close is Kershaw. If he was even decent in postseason, one could make a case, but his dreadful 9 postseason history make it impossible to pick him. Some might want longevity of an above average pitcher,l but I am taking Koufax’s 12 years with 5-6 years of brilliance and championships over 20+ of good but never great and not winning because of it.

This is a well reasoned and well researched response. That you for that.

BR has his home/road ERA splits as 0.85 vs 2.93 so I am sticking with that.

Just about every advanced metric has Marichal ahead. RA9 2.38 vs 2.41. RAopp 3.98 vs 3.99. RA9def -0.02 vs 0.30 (Koufax had a much better defense behind him that year), PPFg 102.5 vs 93 (Here is that dreaded park factor. Koufax benefitted greatly, Marichal was hurt by his), RA9avg 4.17 vs 3.49 (What an average pitcher would do against these opponents, in these parks, with these defenses...massive massive stat), RAA 58 vs 40, WAA 7.4 vs 4.9, RAR 86 vs 72, waaWL% .690 vs .613.

Marichal was better. I understand the writers wouldn't have known this back in the day. Most don't know it now. But it's simply true. Koufax had an obscene park factor in 1965 coupled with a well above average performing defense that year. Marichal had a park detriment that year and a very slightly below average performing defense behind him.

Edit: I see you meant Chance splits not Koufax. My bad. The fact that Chance played in Koufax home ballpark, however, does help to prove my point though. Thanks for that.

CMIZ5290 · #23 07-24-2020, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Wrong. The reason he didn�t win in 1964 was 20-9, 1.65 ERA, 11 shutouts 2.39 FIP all lead the league by Dean Chance. He also had a 1.07 ERA at home and 2.25 on the road. Koufax probably wins if there was a CY Young award in each league. Also, Koufax had an ERA+ of 186. That led the league by 28%. So there is nothing to see here.

As far as 1965, Koufax 2.04 ERA Marichal 2.13, Koufax 26 wins, Marichal 22, W/L% Koufax .765% Marichal .629, WHIP Koufax .855 Marichal .914, H/9 Koufax 5.792 Marichal 6.826, K/9 Koufax 10.242 Marichal 7.314, IP 335.2 Marichal 295.1, Ks Koufax 382 Marichal 240 CG Koufax 27 Marichal 24 K/BB Koufax 5.380 Marichal 5.217 FIP Koufax 1.93 Marichal 2.59. All led the NL.

Marichal led in shutouts 10-8, BB/9 1.402 -1.904 and your favorite ERA+ 169-160.

This is pretty obvious in Koufax�s favor thus Koufax was the unanimous Cy Young winner. Even the Giants writers voted Koufax. Koufax also led in fWAR 10.0 to Marichal 6.8 although somehow bWAR had Marichal led 10.3 to 8.1 showing how worthless WAR really is.

In 1965 Marichal leads Koufax by 169-160 in ERA+ and that translates into 10.3-8.1 spread in bWAR despite Koufax pitching more inning, setting a record for strikeouts in a season, having a better WHIP, FIP, etc. Yet in 1964 Koufax leads Drysdale in ERA+ 186-147, 41% as well as WHIP and FIP, but Drysdale pitches more innings and has more strikeouts so he has a higher b WAR 7.8-7.3. These stats are just made up, there is no transparency and they makes absolutely no sense. I have been asking for years for someone to give a scientific explanation and I get nothing. I am not a sheep. I think for myself. I am not going to accept something just because someone says trust me. The only stats that are reliable are ones based in math and scientific method, the ones that have reason and can be calculated. That is why I go by ERA, WHIP and FIP.

They say Koufax is the best lefty and the only one close is Kershaw. If he was even decent in postseason, one could make a case, but his dreadful 9 postseason history make it impossible to pick him. Some might want longevity of an above average pitcher,l but I am taking Koufax�s 12 years with 5-6 years of brilliance and championships over 20+ of good but never great and not winning because of it.

There is also a fair argument that Kershaw is not even the best pitcher on his current team!!

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