Bursting Bubble

Eggoman · #1 02-24-2021, 08:09 AM

I GOTTA agree with Scott!

I bought AND sold during that time and EVERYTHING was GREAT until the Collector/Investor/Get-Rich-Quick guys on one side of the Dealer's Table stopped buying from the Dealer/Investor/Get-Rich Quick guys on the other side of the table.

Before that, I could sell Junk Wax as fast as I could get it! Canseco Rookies, Benito Santiago, Mike Greenwell, Gregg Jefferies, Ripken FF cards, on and on and on... Baseball, Football, even Hockey & Hoops - it all sold as fast as I could replace it.

1987 Topps was EASY to get, but still sold GREAT! 1987 Fleer was HARD to get, but still sold GREAT!

Prices went up every week, every day...

But then, new product seemingly started coming out every week with all of the new companies joining in. It seemed to render Last Week's stuff nearly unsaleable.

I couldn't get rid of Last Week's product fast enough... Manufacturer's met demand so fast. Everyone got theirs and moved on to what was next... Inventory sat on the shelves, but I still bought NEW product.

moogpowell · #2 02-24-2021, 08:40 AM

Impossible to ascertain magnitude and timing of any selloff but I think HOF baseball players from 1950s to 1970s roughly graded PSA 6 to 8 offer a healthy risk/reward regardless of market conditions. Sort of equivalent to large-cap value with a 2.5% to 3% dividend yield. You won�t get make a lot fast but downside seems limited.

joshuanip · #3 02-24-2021, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moogpowell

Impossible to ascertain magnitude and timing of any selloff but I think HOF baseball players from 1950s to 1970s roughly graded PSA 6 to 8 offer a healthy risk/reward regardless of market conditions. Sort of equivalent to large-cap value with a 2.5% to 3% dividend yield. You won�t get make a lot fast but downside seems limited.

They are absolutely different. The former, regardless prewar or postwar high grade vintage are non income producing alternative assets. They are also illiquid assets, unique in each example similar to real property.

The latter are income producing assets that carry a risk premium (cards cant default or cut your divy) and are based on discounted cashflows of that stock (whether to use the dividend discount model or discounted free cashflow yield remains to be seen). Liquidity is much better as transaction costs are minimal and there is a open marketplace that provides daily liquidity. Also, those stocks are dictated by passive ETF investing and are subject to flow.

I think what you mean is that those investment grade cards are better investments, which I agree, due to the fact that there will always be higher liquidity and demand for that type... but not the same as large cap stocks.

moogpowell · #4 02-24-2021, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip

They are absolutely different. The former, regardless prewar or postwar high grade vintage are non income producing alternative assets. They are also illiquid assets, unique in each example similar to real property.

The latter are income producing assets that carry a risk premium (cards cant default or cut your divy) and are based on discounted cashflows of that stock (whether to use the dividend discount model or discounted free cashflow yield remains to be seen). Liquidity is much better as transaction costs are minimal and there is a open marketplace that provides daily liquidity. Also, those stocks are dictated by passive ETF investing and are subject to flow.

I think what you mean is that those investment grade cards are better investments, which I agree, due to the fact that there will always be higher liquidity and demand for that type... but not the same as large cap stocks.

Think we ultimately agree. I am extremely well versed with investing and recognize the difference between non-income producing assets and income producing assets. I didn't mean for my words to be taken literally. I was making a quick comparison in three sentences and said "sort of equivalent" to underscore that the parallel was meant in spirit.

I read your previous long take in this thread. You clearly know your stuff. What do you have most conviction in be it that player x's cards, or such and such sport's cards from a year or decade etc. are undervalued/overvalued.

I am starting to think that the increased grading, volume and visibility of cards will make a somewhat (but less so over time) inefficient market place, regarding price, become ever more "liquid" and dynamic and reduce the variance between prices. A stock market comparison is apt. I think the internet changes a lot for the hobby for the better. It makes it global and grading facilitates buying/selling/trading and adds trust.

I have zero interesting in cards from the '90s to present and would not cry myself a river if the sky high prices in modern basketball tanked. Some hard lessons wouldn't be bad for novices chasing outsized gains.

joshuanip · #5 02-25-2021, 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moogpowell

Think we ultimately agree... I was making a quick comparison in three sentences and said "sort of equivalent" to underscore that the parallel was meant in spirit... What do you have most conviction in be it that player x's cards, or such and such sport's cards from a year or decade etc. are undervalued/overvalued...

I am starting to think that the increased grading, volume and visibility of cards will make a somewhat (but less so over time) inefficient market place, regarding price, become ever more "liquid" and dynamic and reduce the variance between prices. A stock market comparison is apt. I think the internet changes a lot for the hobby for the better. It makes it global and grading facilitates buying/selling/trading and adds trust.

I have zero interesting in cards from the '90s to present and would not cry myself a river if the sky high prices in modern basketball tanked. Some hard lessons wouldn't be bad for novices chasing outsized gains.

I gotcha. �Brevity is the soul of wit� - quote from another board member...

I have no conviction, I have no clue, but collect who I like . That said, I am using this time to move some of my less liquid sets and less popular players. As Kennedy said, �The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.� By next month 2/3 of my small collection would be Ruths and Cobbs, with an example or two of Gehrig, Williams, mantle and Aaron. If I had to choose a popular sport, basketball... but my heart is in baseball.

I agree on your comment regarding the grading. I made a comment a few months ago that the standardization of grading cards, plus accessible online venues like eBay, have led to commoditization of our hobby. This is a good thing; increased fungibility and liquidity, increasing inherent card values.

pherbener · #6 02-25-2021, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eggoman

I GOTTA agree with Scott!

1987 Topps was EASY to get, but still sold GREAT! 1987 Fleer was HARD to get, but still sold GREAT!

Prices went up every week, every day...

But then, new product seemingly started coming out every week with all of the new companies joining in. It seemed to render Last Week's stuff nearly unsaleable.

I couldn't get rid of Last Week's product fast enough... Manufacturer's met demand so fast. Everyone got theirs and moved on to what was next... Inventory sat on the shelves, but I still bought NEW product.

I was in undergraduate school in 87 and it was near the Topps plant.. I got as many 800 count boxes of Greenwell, Santiago, Joyner, Bonds etc. that I needed. Crazy stuff! Helped put me through school!!

dio · #7 02-25-2021, 09:29 AM

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

joshuanip · #8 02-25-2021, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dio

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

The real bidding starts in extended bidding. All those that bought a ticket are just waiting for the show... no need to bid up this early right now...

troutbum97 · #9 02-25-2021, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip

The real bidding starts in extended bidding. All those that bought a ticket are just waiting for the show... no need to bid up this early right now...

Exactly.
I got my placeholder bids in on Day One.
Bidding now is suicide.

joshuanip · #10 02-25-2021, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dio

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

To your point, I have just found better places to put my capital (today).... I still have my eye on two lots, but cutting bait on the rest...

Peter_Spaeth · #11 02-25-2021, 03:12 PM

If prices are softening, you wouldn't know it by various ebay auctions I saw last night where I felt like, in the words of the Disney song (and very politically incorrect one), I had seen an elephant fly.

troutbum97 · #12 02-25-2021, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If prices are softening, you wouldn't know it by various ebay auctions I saw last night where I felt like, in the words of the Disney song (and very politically incorrect one), I had seen an elephant fly.

Probstein sold a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson in a PSA 3 on Tuesday night for $4,308. I mean. WTF !!??

Flying elephant right there.

Exhibitman · #13 02-25-2021, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutbum97

Probstein sold a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson in a PSA 3 on Tuesday night for $4,308.

Did they, though?

Wanaselja · #14 02-25-2021, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutbum97

Probstein sold a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson in a PSA 3 on Tuesday night for $4,308. I mean. WTF !!??

Flying elephant right there.

PWCC has a PSA 4.5 ending tonight that�s at $5500.

Snapolit1 · #15 02-28-2021, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dio

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

Ha ha. That's a good one.

A Jackie photo sold last night in Heritage for $360,000, that I'm pretty sure I once took a pass on for $22,000. A card I sold a friend for $9,000 two years ago sold for $75,000. Yep, it's the beginning of the end.

dio · #16 03-01-2021, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Ha ha. That's a good one.

A Jackie photo sold last night in Heritage for $360,000, that I'm pretty sure I once took a pass on for $22,000. A card I sold a friend for $9,000 two years ago sold for $75,000. Yep, it's the beginning of the end.

Nope, bubble not bursting, tonight's heritage still strong

Brian Van Horn · #17 03-01-2021, 01:48 AM

This period of time is simply hilarious.

Chicosbailbonds · #18 03-01-2021, 03:52 AM

I would think it will remain strong thru the next round of $1400 stimilus checks, then watch out.

rjackson44 · #19 03-01-2021, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Ha ha. That's a good one.

A Jackie photo sold last night in Heritage for $360,000, that I'm pretty sure I once took a pass on for $22,000. A card I sold a friend for $9,000 two years ago sold for $75,000. Yep, it's the beginning of the end.

Hi steve lol your funny

Snapolit1 · #20 03-01-2021, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Hi steve lol your funny

I sold a board member a Jackie Leaf SGC 60 for I think $9000.

I need to let it go as the song goes. . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0-j-EJOzRA

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