ebay finds that PWCC engaged in shill bidding?

Oscar_Stanage · #1 08-21-2021, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

I just looked into this further since I'm basically being called an idiot for my statement regarding these not looking fishy at all from a data perspective.

You state that these sales are "all far above actual sales contemporaneous to them". This is not true. These sales are all very much in line with the other sales for this card. I looked up all sales of this card in any grade going back to November 2020 on both Terapeak and PWCC's Market Research Tool. The list below is comprehensive. Every sale in this dataset lines up with market expectations. Also worth noting is that the middle sale of the 3 in your post above is absent in both eBay's Terapeak research tool and PWCC's research tool, which generally implies that it was not paid for. Perhaps that listing was shill bid by the person who previously bought it for 11k? Who knows. But it makes perfect sense for it to be listed again if whoever bought it did not pay for it.

Note the sale of another PSA 9 by some random ebay seller on June 5th, just 3 weeks before the most recent sale of the 3 you posted. It sold for $5911 at auction, but there were at least FOUR unique bidders all of whom placed a bid north of $5k in that auction. The one you say was "far above actual sales contemporarenous" to this one sold just 3 weeks later in the same PSA 9 grade (but with an older style slab) for $4861.90 at auction with PWCC.

Here are the sales of this card. All of these line up perfectly with expectations given the market trends we've seen throughout 2021.

I agree with you. many cards followed the pattern of peaking in Feb/March and then dropping by 50% in June.

rats60 · #2 08-21-2021, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

I agree with you. many cards followed the pattern of peaking in Feb/March and then dropping by 50% in June.

Because they were shilled? What makes more sense? Someone buys a card and sells it for half a few months later then the second buyer sells it for 20% less. Or the first auction is shilled and never paid for, the second auction is shilled and never paid for and then the third auction results in a sale (or not). The later is what happened in 2016, why wouldn't it be the same in 2021?

Peter_Spaeth · #3 08-21-2021, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Because they were shilled? What makes more sense? Someone buys a card and sells it for half a few months later then the second buyer sells it for 20% less. Or the first auction is shilled and never paid for, the second auction is shilled and never paid for and then the third auction results in a sale (or not). The later is what happened in 2016, why wouldn't it be the same in 2021?

The alleged sellers realized even less than that after fees if those sales are real.
Yeah, real likely.
But defenders will defend, that's what they did then, that's what they do now.

Imagine if he gets indicted, what will they say then?

Peter_Spaeth · #4 08-21-2021, 12:57 PM

This is the Blowout thread on PWCC cards supposedly not paid for I referenced the other day.

I probably posted it here a long time ago but worth another look in light of the recent ebay claim.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1307889

Snowman · #5 08-21-2021, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This is the Blowout thread on PWCC cards supposedly not paid for I referenced the other day.

I probably posted it here a long time ago but worth another look in light of the recent ebay claim.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1307889

This is precisely the sort of analysis that drove me nuts over at the Blowhard forums. Somehow, someone thinks they can "prove" that they've discovered a way to uncover this damning list of manipulated transactions because they found cards on PWCC's research tool but those cards were absent on eBay's. There's a huge problem with this assumption though. eBay's data integrity is absolute garbage to begin with. I deal with data integrity issues every day at work. It's an extremely important aspect of a data scientist's job. Every company has these issues. You can't just assume that what pops up in eBay's market price research tool is comprehensive of anything, and the same with PWCC's tool. You can't look at the intersection of those two datasets and start making conclusions like this about the missing links. There's often no rhyme or reason to which cards get listed as "sold", which ones get removed or flagged, when the ones that do get removed actually get removed, etc. Just go look through your own eBay purchases and try to see which ones you can find through their market research tool and PWCC's research tool. You will find missing sales. It is extremely common.

These sorts of threads are tattooed all over the place at Blowhard. Then the subsequent posts are just an avalanche of praise from people who just gobble this nonsense up. "Oh wow! Great work detective!"

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying shill bidding doesn't happen on the regular with PWCC consignors, or that some of these cards weren't paid for. I'm just saying that this list isn't what you think it is. The primary conclusions from that thread are not valid. Also, just because an item wasn't paid for doesn't mean it was because of shill bidding.

Here's a prime example from my own collection. And this is for a 52 Topps Mickey Mantle no less. I bought this card on eBay from PWCC on 07/22/2021 for $45k. But it doesn't show up in eBay's market pricing tool. Yet I assure you, it was paid for and is currently in my possession.

Same with some of my other recent purchases. I bought 3 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan SGC 9 rookie cards, all on eBay from PWCC. But only 2 of the 3 show up. Why is that? Again, all were paid for and all are in my possession.

Peter_Spaeth · #6 08-21-2021, 02:05 PM

You know best. I am sure it means nothing. I am sure what DeLorme (who was in the thick of it) told me about what was going on was contrived as well. Just data set errors, nothing to see here. And just a huge fortuity that it coincides with a period when Brent acknowledged a group of people were "pushing" the market and reported prices were surging to unheard of levels. And just a coincidence that the seller is PWCC and not someone else.

Next..... nothing to see here.

Snowman · #7 08-21-2021, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You know best. I am sure it means nothing. I am sure what DeLorme told me about what was going on was contrived as well.

There might very well be all sorts of shenanigans going on at PWCC. I'm not defending them. I'm merely pointing out that this list proves nothing. Then, I demonstrated why with an example from my own purchases.

Fuddjcal · #8 08-21-2021, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

This is precisely the sort of analysis that drove me nuts over at the Blowhard forums. Somehow, someone thinks they can "prove" that they've discovered a way to uncover this damning list of manipulated transactions because they found cards on PWCC's research tool but those cards were absent on eBay's. There's a huge problem with this assumption though. eBay's data integrity is absolute garbage to begin with. I deal with data integrity issues every day at work. It's an extremely important aspect of a data scientist's job. Every company has these issues. You can't just assume that what pops up in eBay's market price research tool is comprehensive of anything, and the same with PWCC's tool. You can't look at the intersection of those two datasets and start making conclusions like this about the missing links. There's often no rhyme or reason to which cards get listed as "sold", which ones get removed or flagged, when the ones that do get removed actually get removed, etc. Just go look through your own eBay purchases and try to see which ones you can find through their market research tool and PWCC's research tool. You will find missing sales. It is extremely common.

These sorts of threads are tattooed all over the place at Blowhard. Then the subsequent posts are just an avalanche of praise from people who just gobble this nonsense up. "Oh wow! Great work detective!"

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying shill bidding doesn't happen on the regular with PWCC consignors, or that some of these cards weren't paid for. I'm just saying that this list isn't what you think it is. The primary conclusions from that thread are not valid. Also, just because an item wasn't paid for doesn't mean it was because of shill bidding.

Here's a prime example from my own collection. And this is for a 52 Topps Mickey Mantle no less. I bought this card on eBay from PWCC on 07/22/2021 for $45k. But it doesn't show up in eBay's market pricing tool. Yet I assure you, it was paid for and is currently in my possession.

Same with some of my other recent purchases. I bought 3 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan SGC 9 rookie cards, all on eBay from PWCC. But only 2 of the 3 show up. Why is that? Again, all were paid for and all are in my possession.

Boy, no wonder you apologize and are on Brent Mastro's Schwanz with every post. 45 K, He hammered you like a red headed step child. You must have not had a clue he was crook, criminal, lying loser...or you still did business with a known criminal anyway. Good for you. Enjoy your A** pounding

Just send that one back to him and he'll have it a PSA 6, just like he probably promised you.

MattyC · #9 08-21-2021, 02:51 PM

Always nice to see a discussion degenerate into ad hominem attacks criticizing what a collector chooses to pay for a piece he wants.

Mark17 · #10 08-21-2021, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Boy, no wonder you apologize and are on Brent Mastro's Schwanz with every post. 45 K, He hammered you like a red headed step child. You must have not had a clue he was crook, criminal, lying loser...or you still did business with a known criminal anyway. Good for you. Enjoy your A** pounding

Just send that one back to him and he'll have it a PSA 6, just like he probably promised you.

Snowman gives an actual example of a card he won on ebay, that shows up in one data set but not another, and brings that point into the discussion. To me, that is constructive to an honest dialogue.

Why do you feel a need to rip him for doing so?

Snowman · #11 08-21-2021, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Boy, no wonder you apologize and are on Brent Mastro's Schwanz with every post. 45 K, He hammered you like a red headed step child. You must have not had a clue he was crook, criminal, lying loser...or you still did business with a known criminal anyway. Good for you. Enjoy your A** pounding

Just send that one back to him and he'll have it a PSA 6, just like he probably promised you.

Nobody took advantage of me. I wasn't shill bid on this card. I made an offer for less than what I felt the card was worth to me. The seller accepted my offer. I love the card and am more than happy with the price I paid. Feel free to berate me ale my purchasing decisions though if you dislike me. I don't mind.

bnorth · #12 08-21-2021, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The alleged sellers realized even less than that after fees if those sales are real.
Yeah, real likely.
But defenders will defend, that's what they did then, that's what they do now.

Imagine if he gets indicted, what will they say then?

I will do business with him till he goes away and again as soon as he gets out. He is a great guy and his auctions bring the most money.

Oscar_Stanage · #13 08-21-2021, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Because they were shilled? What makes more sense? Someone buys a card and sells it for half a few months later then the second buyer sells it for 20% less. Or the first auction is shilled and never paid for, the second auction is shilled and never paid for and then the third auction results in a sale (or not). The later is what happened in 2016, why wouldn't it be the same in 2021?

no. I actually think the example posted looks like a lot of marquee cards over that same period. Shilling is clearly a problem, but the example posted just looked like normal activity to me.

rats60 · #14 08-21-2021, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

no. I actually think the example posted looks like a lot of marquee cards over that same period. Shilling is clearly a problem, but the example posted just looked like normal activity to me.

Do you routinely sell cards you bought at 50% of what you paid? If this is normal activity to you, post your buys on here. I am sure there are members here who would save you fees at take them off your hands at half what you just paid.

Peter_Spaeth · #15 08-21-2021, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Do you routinely sell cards you bought at 50% of what you paid? If this is normal activity to you, post your buys on here. I am sure there are members here who would save you fees at take them off your hands at half what you just paid.

If the first sale of the Mayweather was real, and the buyer consigned it back to PWCC, then assuming a 10 percent fee on the second sale, the buyer lost close to 60 percent. Nothing unusual to see though.

Snowman · #16 08-22-2021, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If the first sale of the Mayweather was real, and the buyer consigned it back to PWCC, then assuming a 10 percent fee on the second sale, the buyer lost close to 60 percent. Nothing unusual to see though.

While I realize, or at least assume, you're being facetious, I think you've hit on the disconnect. It really is nothing unusual to see here. This stuff happens all the time. You really don't think there are people out there who bought high and them panic sell when the market is crashing? Lol. Come on. Normally I'd think someone was joking with a comment like that, but reading through this thread, I don't think you guys are joking. It happens constantly in the crypto community. Every time bitcoin falls, some sizeable percentage of people panic sell. It's actually one of causes of steep declines and added volatility. The sports card market is no different. People buy high and sell low every day on eBay. Particularly the flippers. Just go check out Instagram and Podcasters and the YouTube community of all these "investors" and "flippers". It's also when I do most of my buying. When the market "crashed" after the Feb/Mar peaks, I started buying like crazy because so many people were panic selling.

Also worth pointing out is what card this is. It's a Floyd Mayweather PSA 9 RC. This is the practically the poster child card of the Gen Z flippers/investors/crypto enthusiast type. Alternative sports like boxing, wrestling, tennis, soccer, etc are all the rage with these guys now. And so is keeping their "investments" in a PWCC vault. And they go after the GOATS. This is precisely the type of card I would expect someone like this to buy. I wouldn't even be surprised if the person who paid 11k for that card in Feb at the absolute peak of the market and then panic sold it just 2 months later probably has never even seen a Mayweather fight before in his life.

If you think this is abnormal buying and selling behavior, you're simply just out of touch with a pretty significant faction of the market. This truly is "nothing to see here" activity.

Peter_Spaeth · #17 08-22-2021, 02:04 PM

Whatever Travis. Defend away. You could spin a bullet hole through the head I am sure into some ordinary ho hum thing. Talk to me when he's indicted, for now I'm done with this.

Republicaninmass · #18 08-22-2021, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

If you think this is abnormal buying and selling behavior, you're simply just out of touch with a pretty significant faction of the market. This truly is "nothing to see here" activity.

Where were all the underbidder from just 2 months earlier ?

Keep trying

warrior1978 · #19 08-22-2021, 04:17 PM

I have read through a few pages of this thread but not all. In the past what concerned me about PWCC was the trimmed graded cards that were making their way through PWCCs auctions. I told myself to avoid them or at least be extremely careful bidding on their auctions. I can also see how shill bidding had occurred, without or without their knowledge. Looking back on my wins in the last two years, only one or two have been in their auctions and because of the relatively low dollar amount, I am not concerned. With them moving off Ebay, I most likely will not follow. I would not be comfortable bidding on their auctions in cards worth more than a couple hundred dollars.

Exhibitman · #20 08-23-2021, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

Also worth pointing out is what card this is. It's a Floyd Mayweather PSA 9 RC. This is the practically the poster child card of the Gen Z flippers/investors/crypto enthusiast type. Alternative sports like boxing, wrestling, tennis, soccer, etc are all the rage with these guys now.

The first boxing cards were issued in 1862, so I would hardly classify it as a new kid on the block.

Wish it was all the rage with the new breed; I'd sell my collection into the rise and pay off my mortgage(s).

Oscar_Stanage · #21 08-22-2021, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Do you routinely sell cards you bought at 50% of what you paid? If this is normal activity to you, post your buys on here. I am sure there are members here who would save you fees at take them off your hands at half what you just paid.

I�m not an investor or trader, so no. But the market is dominated by those types so who knows. I did not realize it was the same seller, so perhaps it is fake shilling. But I do know that every jordan card dropped 50% over the same period

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