Auction amounts - how high is high

[53toppscollector]

I was reading through old T206 reference threads last night and someone mentioned picking up a Hindu Brown for $25. I just closed the thread. I wish I had a time machine to go back 20 years and give myself card collecting advice

[Fred]

Are you asking at what amount the price is high or at what amount we think the bidder is "high" (on something)?

[Johnny630]

For me Selling my good stuff now would be leaving a lot of money behind. Not worth it. We are only going up on the good stuff, it’s never coming down. Many rich people are in love with cards. It’s an Apple Like Cult Addiction once you have one and make a few bucks you only want more.

[Hankphenom]

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference to me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.

[Peter_Spaeth]

[QUOTE=Johnny630;2255015]Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference t}
o me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.[/QUOTE}


Nothing new IMO. Auctions have always brought out the giddy buyers who, late at night, are suddenly willing to pay substantially more than what relatively available cards might be seling for on ebay, etc.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nothing new IMO. Auctions have always brought out the giddy buyers who, late at night, are suddenly willing to pay substantially more than what relatively available cards might be seling for on ebay, etc.

I attribute higher prices via AH is more than just buyers being giddy late at night.

Cards selling at auction via AH are predominantly higher quality than what is recycled week after week, month after month on EBay.

Not to mention the BP juice is added to the final price on AH results which is reflected on VCP, where Ebay has no BP on top of what they sell.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

I won't speculate on the percentages of what makes up the market but good stuff has historically always gone for more year over year. I do not see that changing. What I do see changing are the number of people who are in the present market. As an investor I don't think you will maintain the interest and attention span that one has as a collector.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Leon

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices.
Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also.

So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices. Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also. So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

I think cards have become a fungible commodity, like coins and metals in general, stocks, bitcoins, art, etc., and there are no doubt consortiums of investors here and abroad moving into and out of them like any other commodity with the help of professional advisors, AHs, etc. The further you move in the hobby away from graded cards, into memorabilia and oddball of all kinds, the percentage of collectors probably goes up and that of investors goes down, but as you say, there is a snowball effect driving everything up as collectors search to find affordable niches in the marketplace in which they can still compete.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

For me Selling my good stuff now would be leaving a lot of money behind. Not worth it. We are only going up on the good stuff, it’s never coming down. Many rich people are in love with cards. It’s an Apple Like Cult Addiction once you have one and make a few bucks you only want more.

Agreed completely, except for currently holding good stuff part. I don’t have that. But I got in and am hooked.

[Rhotchkiss]

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about “collecting” them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their “investments” and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it’s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about “collecting” them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their “investments” and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it’s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

Well said !

[parkplace33]

With all the bidding and high prices, it’s a wonder why auctions houses haven’t offered lines of credit for buyers.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about “collecting” them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their “investments” and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it’s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

Agreed with all of Ryan's points especially the point about cards being an addiction.

[Shoeless Moe]

I know this isn't cards, but on a Facebook Ticket Collectors Group a person posted that he sold 2 Deion Sanders Debut Ticket stubs, that sold at Goldin last Saturday night for about 400 & 500.

He said last year he sold a couple that went for 1500-2000.

So not everything is going up.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

We are only going up on the good stuff, it’s never coming down.

Only going up and never coming down? This was the housing market’s same sentiment in 2006. This same dangerous sentiment has also financially ruined several stock market “investors” over the years.

Everything comes down. It is just a matter of when and how far. On 1/27/22, a ‘51 Bowman Mantle PSA 8 sold for $504k. Six months later, on 7/21/22, the exact card hammered for only $444k. A $60k loss in six short months. This is just one example. I could cite several similar examples over the past six months in the vintage baseball card market. Also, take a look at the high-end basketball card market.

The Fed can’t soft land this economic plane. The financial markets will worsen in 2023. Demand for high-end cards will further soften. Portfolio values psychology affect spending habits and feelings. I don’t see whales taking double digit portfolio loses (at least on paper) while still dropping deep six figures on cardboard that goes immediately into a safe or safety deposit box.

Not only can the “good stuff” go down, it will go down.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Sure, in any short period there were ups and downs, but over time what's the trend?

[G1911]

The good stuff will go up, over the long haul. I wouldn't count on it in the next couple years on the whole. There seems to be little realistic hope that this soft landing is going to happen; we're likely in for a poor Q4 and 2023 economically that I doubt cards will escape.

Personally, if I was about the cash, I would not buy commodity cards right now. Wait 6-12 months and evaluate. If you buy a 52 Mantle today, you'll make money in 20 years. But if you buy it next year, you might make more profit in 20 years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong..

[nwobhm]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

….it’s never coming down…..

Good luck with that….there is a crash coming. Next year, 5 years, 10 years…. Who knows….. but it is definitely coming. When it hits it’s going to be huge.

[53toppscollector]

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

[midmo]

I don't know about auction prices but I can say that I setup at a local card show yesterday and had my best show in a long time. The amount of young kids that picked through my dollar boxes and wanted to talk about old players was awesome. It really made me feel good about the future of the hobby.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by midmo

I don't know about auction prices but I can say that I setup at a local card show yesterday and had my best show in a long time. The amount of young kids that picked through my dollar boxes and wanted to talk about old players was awesome. It really made me feel good about the future of the hobby.

That's great to hear. Curious: what does a dollar get you in vintage these days?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

This is a great graphic and is very telling.

[Brian Van Horn]

How high is high.

Quaaludes, tons of alcohol and shill bidding. Then repeat, oh, until you win.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5. * not all 5s are equal. obviously. Make of it what you will

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Fred

Are you asking at what amount the price is high or at what amount we think the bidder is "high" (on something)?

I LOLed at this.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I was reading through old T206 reference threads last night and someone mentioned picking up a Hindu Brown for $25. I just closed the thread. I wish I had a time machine to go back 20 years and give myself card collecting advice

Being able to go back 40+ is a bit worse... Most T206 Hofers were $10 in Vg, maybe a bit better. Goudey Ruths were 100....