Auction amounts - how high is high

Johnny630 · #1 08-20-2022, 06:32 PM

For me Selling my good stuff now would be leaving a lot of money behind. Not worth it. We are only going up on the good stuff, it�s never coming down. Many rich people are in love with cards. It�s an Apple Like Cult Addiction once you have one and make a few bucks you only want more.

Hankphenom · #2 08-20-2022, 07:07 PM

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Johnny630 · #3 08-20-2022, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference to me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 08-20-2022, 07:49 PM

[QUOTE=Johnny630;2255015]Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference t}
o me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.[/QUOTE}

Nothing new IMO. Auctions have always brought out the giddy buyers who, late at night, are suddenly willing to pay substantially more than what relatively available cards might be seling for on ebay, etc.

3-2-count · #5 08-20-2022, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nothing new IMO. Auctions have always brought out the giddy buyers who, late at night, are suddenly willing to pay substantially more than what relatively available cards might be seling for on ebay, etc.

I attribute higher prices via AH is more than just buyers being giddy late at night.

Cards selling at auction via AH are predominantly higher quality than what is recycled week after week, month after month on EBay.

Not to mention the BP juice is added to the final price on AH results which is reflected on VCP, where Ebay has no BP on top of what they sell.

Peter_Spaeth · #6 08-20-2022, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I attribute higher prices via AH is more than just buyers being giddy late at night.

Cards selling at auction via AH are predominantly higher quality than what is recycled week after week, month after month on EBay.

Not to mention the BP juice is added to the final price on AH results which is reflected on VCP, where Ebay has no BP on top of what they sell.

Obviously more elite cards show up in AHs by a longshot, but I was talking about commodity cards (say a midgrade Mantle) where I don't think there's any quality difference.

53toppscollector · #7 08-20-2022, 08:50 PM

The other interesting thing, imo, is that you have far FEWER eyes on auction house listings, which makes me think that finding bargains on lower grade, more under the radar items might be easier than ebay, where items are potentially getting many more views.

I am currently the high bidder on a LOTG auction now that has only 61 views, and I guarantee if that card were listed on ebay, it would have a lot more views.

Lorewalker · #8 08-20-2022, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

I won't speculate on the percentages of what makes up the market but good stuff has historically always gone for more year over year. I do not see that changing. What I do see changing are the number of people who are in the present market. As an investor I don't think you will maintain the interest and attention span that one has as a collector.

Leon · #9 08-26-2022, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

mrreality68 · #10 08-26-2022, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices.
Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also.

So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

Hankphenom · #11 08-26-2022, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices. Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also. So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

I think cards have become a fungible commodity, like coins and metals in general, stocks, bitcoins, art, etc., and there are no doubt consortiums of investors here and abroad moving into and out of them like any other commodity with the help of professional advisors, AHs, etc. The further you move in the hobby away from graded cards, into memorabilia and oddball of all kinds, the percentage of collectors probably goes up and that of investors goes down, but as you say, there is a snowball effect driving everything up as collectors search to find affordable niches in the marketplace in which they can still compete.

53toppscollector · #12 08-26-2022, 12:56 PM

One more chart

The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

Johnny630 · #13 08-26-2022, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

One more chart

The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously, I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

Excellent Chart Thank You!

This is what I have been saying for the past several years if you�re collecting as an investment you want the best players, the best well-known card issue(not oddball) of the highest graded nicest centered you can find. This Chart Shows that!

1. Ruth
2. Cobb
3. Jackie
4. Mantle
5. Mays

Shoeless Moe · #14 08-28-2022, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

One more chart

The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

Did any of these grade level cards go at Heritage yesterday? Curious if they went up or down?

Carter08 · #15 08-20-2022, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

For me Selling my good stuff now would be leaving a lot of money behind. Not worth it. We are only going up on the good stuff, it�s never coming down. Many rich people are in love with cards. It�s an Apple Like Cult Addiction once you have one and make a few bucks you only want more.

Agreed completely, except for currently holding good stuff part. I don�t have that. But I got in and am hooked.

Rhotchkiss · #16 08-20-2022, 09:43 PM

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about �collecting� them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their �investments� and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it�s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

Johnny630 · #17 08-21-2022, 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about �collecting� them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their �investments� and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it�s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

Well said !

parkplace33 · #18 08-21-2022, 08:30 AM

With all the bidding and high prices, it�s a wonder why auctions houses haven�t offered lines of credit for buyers.

Johnny630 · #19 08-21-2022, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkplace33

With all the bidding and high prices, it’s a wonder why auction houses haven’t offered lines of credit for buyers.

I know some big buyers in these auction houses mostly dealers get 90 days or more to pay because of their history of bidding and spending with the auction house. Sometimes they’ll get the cards even in advance before they pay the auction house.

volplaya8 · #20 08-21-2022, 11:37 AM

I think what helps the auction houses out a lot when it comes to pricing is the fact they get so many nice cards in one place at one time. When you get most of the collectors and investors eyes on something at the same time, you are probably going to get good results. If ebay gets a nice card or two then it�s auctioned but not as many guys may see that card go off or even wait around to bid on it. With rea and others you get all the eyes on every card and then guys may throw bids on something else since they already are bidding on others. Ebay just will never have the amount of quality cards going off at one same time. Even Lotg last night, you may see those some of those cards on ebay here and there but look at how many tobacco, caramel etc cards they had all guaranteed to be sold at the same time. Also do not discount catalogs and fact guys can prepare accordingly.

BobC · #21 08-21-2022, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkplace33

With all the bidding and high prices, it�s a wonder why auctions houses haven�t offered lines of credit for buyers.

Wait a sec, isn't that already sort of being done by at least one of the "vault" providers that also functions as an AH? My understanding was they offered advances on items being held. And wouldn't be surprised if some other AHs weren't already offering something similar under certain circumstances as well.

Johnny630 · #22 08-21-2022, 12:17 PM

I often wonder what percentage of big spenders in auction could be doing one or some of the following,

1. Taking loans against their 401k�s to fund card buys.

2. Using a Cash advance on their credit cards to fund buy.

3. Taking a business line or credit out to fund.

mrreality68 · #23 08-22-2022, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about �collecting� them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their �investments� and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it�s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

Agreed with all of Ryan's points especially the point about cards being an addiction.

Shoeless Moe · #24 08-22-2022, 09:46 AM

I know this isn't cards, but on a Facebook Ticket Collectors Group a person posted that he sold 2 Deion Sanders Debut Ticket stubs, that sold at Goldin last Saturday night for about 400 & 500.

He said last year he sold a couple that went for 1500-2000.

So not everything is going up.

Tyruscobb · #25 08-20-2022, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

We are only going up on the good stuff, it�s never coming down.

Only going up and never coming down? This was the housing market�s same sentiment in 2006. This same dangerous sentiment has also financially ruined several stock market �investors� over the years.

Everything comes down. It is just a matter of when and how far. On 1/27/22, a �51 Bowman Mantle PSA 8 sold for $504k. Six months later, on 7/21/22, the exact card hammered for only $444k. A $60k loss in six short months. This is just one example. I could cite several similar examples over the past six months in the vintage baseball card market. Also, take a look at the high-end basketball card market.

The Fed can�t soft land this economic plane. The financial markets will worsen in 2023. Demand for high-end cards will further soften. Portfolio values psychology affect spending habits and feelings. I don�t see whales taking double digit portfolio loses (at least on paper) while still dropping deep six figures on cardboard that goes immediately into a safe or safety deposit box.

Not only can the �good stuff� go down, it will go down.

Peter_Spaeth · #26 08-20-2022, 09:59 PM

Sure, in any short period there were ups and downs, but over time what's the trend?

G1911 · #27 08-20-2022, 10:52 PM

The good stuff will go up, over the long haul. I wouldn't count on it in the next couple years on the whole. There seems to be little realistic hope that this soft landing is going to happen; we're likely in for a poor Q4 and 2023 economically that I doubt cards will escape.

Personally, if I was about the cash, I would not buy commodity cards right now. Wait 6-12 months and evaluate. If you buy a 52 Mantle today, you'll make money in 20 years. But if you buy it next year, you might make more profit in 20 years.

Peter_Spaeth · #28 08-20-2022, 10:56 PM

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong..

G1911 · #29 08-20-2022, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong.

I don't think it's doom and gloom to observe the likelihood the economy is likely to decline a bit further over the short term. One will never time it exactly, it will be fine in the long haul; but it's not doom and gloom to acknowledge present realities. The economy falters for periods; there's little reason to think the turn around is about to hit and reverse what's happening.

Peter_Spaeth · #30 08-20-2022, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I don't think it's doom and gloom to observe the likelihood the economy is likely to decline a bit further over the short term. One will never time it exactly, it will be fine in the long haul; but it's not doom and gloom to acknowledge present realities. The economy falters for periods; there's little reason to think the turn around is about to hit and reverse what's happening.

I've read enough absolutely wrong short as well as long term prognostications that I completely disregard all of them, no disrespect to you intended. As the joke goes, economists have successfully predicted five out of the last three recessions.

Carter08 · #31 08-20-2022, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong..

Completely agree. Anyone that claims they know certain things about the current economic state are kidding themselves.

nwobhm · #32 08-21-2022, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

�.it�s never coming down�..

Good luck with that�.there is a crash coming. Next year, 5 years, 10 years�. Who knows�.. but it is definitely coming. When it hits it�s going to be huge.

53toppscollector · #33 08-21-2022, 01:29 PM

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

midmo · #34 08-21-2022, 02:17 PM

I don't know about auction prices but I can say that I setup at a local card show yesterday and had my best show in a long time. The amount of young kids that picked through my dollar boxes and wanted to talk about old players was awesome. It really made me feel good about the future of the hobby.

Hankphenom · #35 08-22-2022, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by midmo

I don't know about auction prices but I can say that I setup at a local card show yesterday and had my best show in a long time. The amount of young kids that picked through my dollar boxes and wanted to talk about old players was awesome. It really made me feel good about the future of the hobby.

That's great to hear. Curious: what does a dollar get you in vintage these days?

parkplace33 · #36 08-21-2022, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

This is a great graphic and is very telling.

Brian Van Horn · #37 08-21-2022, 10:33 PM

How high is high.

Quaaludes, tons of alcohol and shill bidding. Then repeat, oh, until you win.

Hankphenom · #38 08-22-2022, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5. * not all 5s are equal. obviously. Make of it what you will

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

ullmandds · #39 08-22-2022, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

53toppscollector · #40 08-22-2022, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

The graph shows all of the sales of a PSA 5 via auction.

A 5 sold through REA for $138,000 on Aug 15, 2021. It is a very crisp, well centered example. Two weeks later, a 5 that had worse centering and color sold at LOTG for $68k. That exact same card was sold by gregmorriscards2 on ebay for $83k a few weeks after.

The bigger point is that the Mantle has gone way up since 2006. There are price fluctuations, but if you bought one in 2006 for $16k, and you sell it now for the average price of the last 5 ($110,000) then you've made yourself a nice profit. And at no point, since 2006, has it looked like your investment would lose money. If you buy one now for $130,000 and the next sale is for $75,000, then maybe you'd worry a bit, but if you are buying these cards with the idea to hold on to them for a long time, it seems unlikely to me that they are going to crater (or even really go down) in value

Edit: another note to consider when comparing baseball cards as investments to the stock market is that your baseball card isn't going to change in 10, 20 or 50 years. A 1952 Topps Mantle is going to still be a 1952 Topps Mantle 10 years from now, and they aren't making any more of them. An index fund for the S&P 500 will change over the next 10 years as companies enter and drop out of the index. The stock market will ebb and flow and will likely continue to rise. But to what extent is obviously unknown. The next 10-15 years could see significant changes to the way we live based on things like climate change, and industries that appear strong now may begin to crater. Likewise, new industries that really aren't prominent now might be much more important and be significant financial catalysts in 10 years. Predicting that is hard. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle will still be exactly the same 10 years from now. And I would argue it would be a bit more fun to hold in your hand than a statement from your stock broker, but your mileage may vary :-)

Shoeless Moe · #41 08-22-2022, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Edit: another note to consider when comparing baseball cards as investments to the stock market is that your baseball card isn't going to change in 10, 20 or 50 years. A 1952 Topps Mantle is going to still be a 1952 Topps Mantle 10 years from now, and they aren't making any more of them. An index fund for the S&P 500 will change over the next 10 years as companies enter and drop out of the index. The stock market will ebb and flow and will likely continue to rise. But to what extent is obviously unknown. The next 10-15 years could see significant changes to the way we live based on things like climate change, and industries that appear strong now may begin to crater. Likewise, new industries that really aren't prominent now might be much more important and be significant financial catalysts in 10 years. Predicting that is hard. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle will still be exactly the same 10 years from now. And I would argue it would be a bit more fun to hold in your hand than a statement from your stock broker, but your mileage may vary :-)

Right the card won't change, but the percentage of people who want that card will drastically change.

I would guess that 75-80% of NET54 members are 50 and over. In 30 years when all of those are dead or near dead, unless there is a HUGE shift in the collecting age demographic, the demand could very well be A LOT less, thus the price dropping big time.

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