Auction amounts - how high is high

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

The graph shows all of the sales of a PSA 5 via auction.

A 5 sold through REA for $138,000 on Aug 15, 2021. It is a very crisp, well centered example. Two weeks later, a 5 that had worse centering and color sold at LOTG for $68k. That exact same card was sold by gregmorriscards2 on ebay for $83k a few weeks after.

The bigger point is that the Mantle has gone way up since 2006. There are price fluctuations, but if you bought one in 2006 for $16k, and you sell it now for the average price of the last 5 ($110,000) then you've made yourself a nice profit. And at no point, since 2006, has it looked like your investment would lose money. If you buy one now for $130,000 and the next sale is for $75,000, then maybe you'd worry a bit, but if you are buying these cards with the idea to hold on to them for a long time, it seems unlikely to me that they are going to crater (or even really go down) in value

Edit: another note to consider when comparing baseball cards as investments to the stock market is that your baseball card isn't going to change in 10, 20 or 50 years. A 1952 Topps Mantle is going to still be a 1952 Topps Mantle 10 years from now, and they aren't making any more of them. An index fund for the S&P 500 will change over the next 10 years as companies enter and drop out of the index. The stock market will ebb and flow and will likely continue to rise. But to what extent is obviously unknown. The next 10-15 years could see significant changes to the way we live based on things like climate change, and industries that appear strong now may begin to crater. Likewise, new industries that really aren't prominent now might be much more important and be significant financial catalysts in 10 years. Predicting that is hard. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle will still be exactly the same 10 years from now. And I would argue it would be a bit more fun to hold in your hand than a statement from your stock broker, but your mileage may vary :-)

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Edit: another note to consider when comparing baseball cards as investments to the stock market is that your baseball card isn't going to change in 10, 20 or 50 years. A 1952 Topps Mantle is going to still be a 1952 Topps Mantle 10 years from now, and they aren't making any more of them. An index fund for the S&P 500 will change over the next 10 years as companies enter and drop out of the index. The stock market will ebb and flow and will likely continue to rise. But to what extent is obviously unknown. The next 10-15 years could see significant changes to the way we live based on things like climate change, and industries that appear strong now may begin to crater. Likewise, new industries that really aren't prominent now might be much more important and be significant financial catalysts in 10 years. Predicting that is hard. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle will still be exactly the same 10 years from now. And I would argue it would be a bit more fun to hold in your hand than a statement from your stock broker, but your mileage may vary :-)

Right the card won't change, but the percentage of people who want that card will drastically change.

I would guess that 75-80% of NET54 members are 50 and over. In 30 years when all of those are dead or near dead, unless there is a HUGE shift in the collecting age demographic, the demand could very well be A LOT less, thus the price dropping big time.

[Johnny630]

The 52 Topps Mantle Ownership is a Club...has a cult like following, kind of like Apple products. A good cult like following that is passionate and addicted to it, it's a good thing. This card will always be in demand, in any grade.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Right the card won't change, but the percentage of people who want that card will drastically change.

I would guess that 75-80% of NET54 members are 50 and over. In 30 years when all of those are dead or near dead, unless there is a HUGE shift in the collecting age demographic, the demand could very well be A LOT less, thus the price dropping big time.

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

Mantle isn't just a sports icon, hes a cultural icon. Kids today who are 12 years old and love baseball know who Mickey Mantle was. When they get older, they too will want a 1952 Mantle, most likely.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

Mantle isn't just a sports icon, hes a cultural icon. Kids today who are 12 years old and love baseball know who Mickey Mantle was. When they get older, they too will want a 1952 Mantle, most likely.

The T206 craze and Mantle both fall into the age 50-80 current group. Yes there will be some under 50 who will want those, but WAY WAY WAY less. From reading posts over the year almost all say my kids have no interest in my cards/collection. Yes there will be some, but not close to the numbers of those who grew up in the 60's, 70's & 80's that is responsible for Mantle & T206 collecting.

That HUGE group is going to go away. You or someone can do a Poll on here and see how many under 50 "set collectors", etc there are, my guess a bare minimum. Again I'd say maybe 20% of NET54. Maybe.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

The T206 craze and Mantle both fall into the age 50-80 current group. Yes there will be some under 50 who will want those, but WAY WAY WAY less. From reading posts over the year almost all say my kids have no interest in my cards/collection. Yes there will be some, but not close to the numbers of those who grew up in the 60's, 70's & 80's that is responsible for Mantle & T206 collecting.

That HUGE group is going to go away. You or someone can do a Poll on here and see how many under 50 "set collectors", etc there are, my guess a bare minimum. Again I'd say maybe 20% of NET54. Maybe.

Set Collecting has gone the way of the dinosaur, agree. However I know more and more younger people that are collecting high grade 50’s and 60’s Star Cards, Mantle is always top of their list. We are talking 20-40 age range. To me there is no comparison between set builders and Star Collectors in High Grade. They want the money cards not the commons.

This is post has post has prob 5-10 guys seriously thinking about trying to join the 52 Mantle Club

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Set Collecting has gone the way of the dinosaur, agree. However I know more and more younger people that are collecting high grade 50’s and 60’s Star Cards, Mantle is always top of their list. We are talking 20-40 age range. To me there is no comparison between set builders and Star Collectors in High Grade. They want the money cards not the commons.

This is post has post has prob 5-10 guys seriously thinking about trying to join the 52 Mantle Club

Yes, and it was COVID that brought the surge of new collectors, but how many will lose money because they thought it was easy money and then drop out, how many will just lose interest because they arn't seeing returns quick enough and they will drop out, and others that got in will just lose interest. Yes some will be hooked, but I don't see there being a lot. Right now the dust has somewhat settled, and people are still overpaying. ALL collectors buying now are over-paying. You have to if you don't have the patience. But the boom is over. It's still much greater then when it started because currently there are more bodies in, but they will slowly dissipate through getting older and death or lack of interest and fast money. I'd say in 5-10 years you could see just about everything at or near 2019 prices. Barring another worldwide deadly outbreak which is always possible.

[Touch'EmAll]

There are a lot of relatively new collectors - kids and collectors in their 20 - 40's.

These new collectors are probably more into modern cards. How many LeBron and Mike Trout cards can one continue to collect as the decades roll by?

At some point, they will want something new to them - vintage ! As collectors age, mature and discretionary income increases, there are going to be A LOT of these collectors move to vintage. Once us "oldies" pass away, the vintage market will not suffer and could actually boom to ever new dizzying heights.

Card collecting is here to stay. The population of this country is just going up and up and up - more collectors as time passes. Demand will increase. They are only so many nice cards of Cobb, Ruth and the like.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Card collecting is here to stay. The population of this country is just going up and up and up - more collectors as time passes. Demand will increase. They are only so many nice cards of Cobb, Ruth and the like.

Huh?

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...he-nation.html

and...

Population declined in 17 states in 2021, according to an annual report from the Pew Charitable Trusts Fiscal 50 project. A long-term trend of reduced growth rate appears to have been amplified by COVID-19 deaths and continued restrictions on immigration.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

This ^^ +100%

I am 47, and love the players and cards from the late 1890s-1920s. I never saw any of them. My parents never saw any of them. I am pretty sure my grandparents barely (if at all) saw any of them. Very few people alive today, let alone on net54, ever saw these players. Yet t206s, 1914 CJs, etc are as coveted as ever.

And it’s not just baseball players. George Washington and Abe Lincoln items sell for a lot more than Kennedy and FDR, yet whoever is buying them never even had a chance to meet Washington’s great great niece.

I think the argument that “nobody will be into these guys bc they have never seen them” has been proven wrong time and time again. But you do you and I will do me. Each to their own

Eddie says: “nobody appreciates me anymore”

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This ^^ +100%

I am 47, and love the players and cards from the late 1890s-1920s. I never saw any of them. My parents never saw any of them. I am pretty sure my grandparents barely (if at all) saw any of them. Very few people alive today, let alone on net54, ever saw these players. Yet t206s, 1914 CJs, etc are as coveted as ever.

And it’s not just baseball players. George Washington and Abe Lincoln items sell for a lot more than Kennedy and FDR, yet whoever is buying them never even had a chance to meet Washington’s great great niece.

I think the argument that “nobody will be into these guys bc they have never seen them” has been proven wrong time and time again. But you do you and I will do me. Each to their own

I didn't say this, not sure if anyone did. What I'm saying is there will be a dramatic drop in collectors of vintage in 30 years. You being 47 is right on that bubble. You ain't a spring chicken and you ain't an old fart. But you were in the era of the baseball card collecting boom - the 80's. Let's call it the pre-cell phone ERA.

And I'm not say ALL interest will be gone. I'm saying now you have about 75% who collect vintage 50 (maybe 47 and older. 25% who collect vintage 50 and under. So in 20-30 years that 75% will be all but gone, and I just don't see the 25% expanding to 75%. I see it holding steady, and even possibly dropping.....or maybe it does expand, but if so maybe to 35% give or take.

I think there will come a time there will be a lot less people in the swimming pool. Now it's over crowded. But we have already seen some get out from 2021. Still more in then 2019, but through attrition the numbers will change.

Also, in 30 years people might be spending their money on cars that do things we've yet to see, and trips in a rocket ship to outer space and back. Would you trade a '52 Mantle for a trip to into space and back? Would you rather have a material thing or an experience? I think the younger generation will opt for the experience. And for those in 30 years will they want to show off a Lebron Triple Logo do-hickey or a Mordecai Brown? We are still in that group that studied and read about the game even though we didn't see them play. Are the next generation doing much reading on the history of the game?

We are still in the boom, and collecting is still on fire, so somewhat hard to imagine, but I think there is a strong possibility prices could come down if the cards fall as they might.

[Casey2296]

You make some good points Paul and it's one aspect of the market. The beautiful thing about the run up coinciding with aging out is the plethora of high quality rare baseball cards that money brings out, whether it's due to death (uncle jimmy), or taking advantage of the market (David Hall), but the cards available right now on a fairly consistent basis is incredible. Quite frankly I don't care what my collection is worth when I'm dead, my kids will open 4-5 suitcases of cards reflecting my collecting journey, they'll know how important baseball was in my life and hopefully say "Jesus, he built a pretty solid collection".

Of course they'll be saying it to Al Crisafulli's kids as they consign it cuz Al and I will both be sleeping with the fishes.

Does money matter? You betcha, but as a collector it's way down on the list when you compare it to the relationships formed in this hobby and on this sub with old time guys, young folks catching the pre-war fever, and everything in between.

Pre war is like beachfront property, they ain't making anymore of it...