Auction amounts - how high is high

[53toppscollector]

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

[midmo]

I don't know about auction prices but I can say that I setup at a local card show yesterday and had my best show in a long time. The amount of young kids that picked through my dollar boxes and wanted to talk about old players was awesome. It really made me feel good about the future of the hobby.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by midmo

I don't know about auction prices but I can say that I setup at a local card show yesterday and had my best show in a long time. The amount of young kids that picked through my dollar boxes and wanted to talk about old players was awesome. It really made me feel good about the future of the hobby.

That's great to hear. Curious: what does a dollar get you in vintage these days?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

This is a great graphic and is very telling.

[Brian Van Horn]

How high is high.

Quaaludes, tons of alcohol and shill bidding. Then repeat, oh, until you win.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5. * not all 5s are equal. obviously. Make of it what you will

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

The graph shows all of the sales of a PSA 5 via auction.

A 5 sold through REA for $138,000 on Aug 15, 2021. It is a very crisp, well centered example. Two weeks later, a 5 that had worse centering and color sold at LOTG for $68k. That exact same card was sold by gregmorriscards2 on ebay for $83k a few weeks after.

The bigger point is that the Mantle has gone way up since 2006. There are price fluctuations, but if you bought one in 2006 for $16k, and you sell it now for the average price of the last 5 ($110,000) then you've made yourself a nice profit. And at no point, since 2006, has it looked like your investment would lose money. If you buy one now for $130,000 and the next sale is for $75,000, then maybe you'd worry a bit, but if you are buying these cards with the idea to hold on to them for a long time, it seems unlikely to me that they are going to crater (or even really go down) in value

Edit: another note to consider when comparing baseball cards as investments to the stock market is that your baseball card isn't going to change in 10, 20 or 50 years. A 1952 Topps Mantle is going to still be a 1952 Topps Mantle 10 years from now, and they aren't making any more of them. An index fund for the S&P 500 will change over the next 10 years as companies enter and drop out of the index. The stock market will ebb and flow and will likely continue to rise. But to what extent is obviously unknown. The next 10-15 years could see significant changes to the way we live based on things like climate change, and industries that appear strong now may begin to crater. Likewise, new industries that really aren't prominent now might be much more important and be significant financial catalysts in 10 years. Predicting that is hard. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle will still be exactly the same 10 years from now. And I would argue it would be a bit more fun to hold in your hand than a statement from your stock broker, but your mileage may vary :-)

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Edit: another note to consider when comparing baseball cards as investments to the stock market is that your baseball card isn't going to change in 10, 20 or 50 years. A 1952 Topps Mantle is going to still be a 1952 Topps Mantle 10 years from now, and they aren't making any more of them. An index fund for the S&P 500 will change over the next 10 years as companies enter and drop out of the index. The stock market will ebb and flow and will likely continue to rise. But to what extent is obviously unknown. The next 10-15 years could see significant changes to the way we live based on things like climate change, and industries that appear strong now may begin to crater. Likewise, new industries that really aren't prominent now might be much more important and be significant financial catalysts in 10 years. Predicting that is hard. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle will still be exactly the same 10 years from now. And I would argue it would be a bit more fun to hold in your hand than a statement from your stock broker, but your mileage may vary :-)

Right the card won't change, but the percentage of people who want that card will drastically change.

I would guess that 75-80% of NET54 members are 50 and over. In 30 years when all of those are dead or near dead, unless there is a HUGE shift in the collecting age demographic, the demand could very well be A LOT less, thus the price dropping big time.

[Johnny630]

The 52 Topps Mantle Ownership is a Club...has a cult like following, kind of like Apple products. A good cult like following that is passionate and addicted to it, it's a good thing. This card will always be in demand, in any grade.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Right the card won't change, but the percentage of people who want that card will drastically change.

I would guess that 75-80% of NET54 members are 50 and over. In 30 years when all of those are dead or near dead, unless there is a HUGE shift in the collecting age demographic, the demand could very well be A LOT less, thus the price dropping big time.

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

Mantle isn't just a sports icon, hes a cultural icon. Kids today who are 12 years old and love baseball know who Mickey Mantle was. When they get older, they too will want a 1952 Mantle, most likely.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

Mantle isn't just a sports icon, hes a cultural icon. Kids today who are 12 years old and love baseball know who Mickey Mantle was. When they get older, they too will want a 1952 Mantle, most likely.

The T206 craze and Mantle both fall into the age 50-80 current group. Yes there will be some under 50 who will want those, but WAY WAY WAY less. From reading posts over the year almost all say my kids have no interest in my cards/collection. Yes there will be some, but not close to the numbers of those who grew up in the 60's, 70's & 80's that is responsible for Mantle & T206 collecting.

That HUGE group is going to go away. You or someone can do a Poll on here and see how many under 50 "set collectors", etc there are, my guess a bare minimum. Again I'd say maybe 20% of NET54. Maybe.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

This ^^ +100%

I am 47, and love the players and cards from the late 1890s-1920s. I never saw any of them. My parents never saw any of them. I am pretty sure my grandparents barely (if at all) saw any of them. Very few people alive today, let alone on net54, ever saw these players. Yet t206s, 1914 CJs, etc are as coveted as ever.

And it’s not just baseball players. George Washington and Abe Lincoln items sell for a lot more than Kennedy and FDR, yet whoever is buying them never even had a chance to meet Washington’s great great niece.

I think the argument that “nobody will be into these guys bc they have never seen them” has been proven wrong time and time again. But you do you and I will do me. Each to their own

Eddie says: “nobody appreciates me anymore”