CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion

Rad_Hazard · #1 11-02-2022, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkplace33

For those who didn't want to watch the video (I do recommend it), here is the premise/highlights:

What is the pulse of the hobby right now?

Lower excitement of the hobby.

Why are collectors selling? Some need money and some want to get out of the hobby "while they can."

Status of dealers, how are they feeling?

General malaise in the hobby.

Many pressures on the card market right now.

Sellers are outnumbering buyers at higher levels.

For buyers, should they buy now or wait 6 months when things will be cheaper?

Card shops that opened in the last few years are closing up this year.

Are you currently buying?

People bought high and won't sell low.

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Thank you for summarizing!

This quote depresses the hell out of me:

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Researching older players is literally WHY I collect. It's the best part. I've read/listened to countless books, newspaper articles, etc, on 19th century ballplayers to gain that knowledge and it's been an absolute pleasure. If there wasn't this aspect I don't think I would collect, yet it seems like that's the main barrier for the younger crowd (I say this as someone in their late 30's).

BioCRN · #2 11-02-2022, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rad_Hazard

Researching older players is literally WHY I collect.

One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.

Rad_Hazard · #3 11-02-2022, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BioCRN

One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.

Exactly! That's what makes it fun!

I suppose that is why I enjoy diving into the history (mainly newspaper articles) of 19th century players. I've read the wonderful reports from Ed Williamson while on the 1888 Spalding World Tour, and I've read the well documented eccentricities of Dude Esterbrook, as well as pouring over the existing stats of all 19th century players.

While I write this I find myself comparing the careers of King Kelly and Paul Hines. Both have wonderfully fascinating stories, and while Kelly was definitely the media "star" of his day and had a great bat, Paul Hines was the better overall player (just as good of a bat at times, and a MUCH better fielder). If we were picking in a schoolyard and I had my choice, it would be Hines, 10 times out of 10.

rjackson44 · #4 11-02-2022, 05:12 PM

There hundreds of these boring videos on you tube yawn

bmattioli · #5 11-02-2022, 06:11 PM

The Covid Era reminds me of late 80's early 90's where the thought of baseball cards were going to make you rich overnight.. Did it?

Exhibitman · #6 11-02-2022, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmattioli

The Covid Era reminds me of late 80's early 90's where the thought of baseball cards were going to make you rich overnight.. Did it?

The people who got in and got out quickly and flipped their proceeds into marquee vintage cards at the time.

The guys who sold the supplies--Levi Strauss didn't get rich with a tin pan.

And the guys who founded Upper Deck. Dewayne Buice made way more on his Upper Deck stock than he ever did playing for Anaheim.

This is cyclical stuff. The newbs are crapping themselves because they've never been through the cycle before and if they didn't take profits or diversify, their fortunes are sinking faster than a mammoth in the La Brea Tar Pits. At a card show this August some shmuck tried to trade me a whole case of super-high-end shiny inserts...of Walker Buehler...d'oh!

G1911 · #7 11-02-2022, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmattioli

The Covid Era reminds me of late 80's early 90's where the thought of baseball cards were going to make you rich overnight.. Did it?

It did. Not in a fiscal way, but I am rich in 1988 Donruss. 1988 Donruss is more colorful than the Benjamins.

doug.goodman · #8 11-02-2022, 07:42 PM

I hope the hobby can't be saved.

Then, when all the dorks are gone, the rest of us can enjoy again.

Doug

Exhibitman · #9 11-02-2022, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjackson44

There hundreds of these boring videos on you tube yawn

hee hee, that's good---yawntube.

cubman1941 · #10 11-03-2022, 06:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BioCRN

One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.

I am also a long time Cub guy, over 50 years. But I also found over the years that by diving deep into Cub history not only deepened my knowledge of the Cubs but baseball entirely. I got caught up in the 80's and 90's craze because that was the thing at the time. I became a set collector so bought box after box to put sets together. However, when the 1 of 1's and the "insert" cards started coming out I realized I could not longer put a set together so got out and started concentrating on pre 1948 Cubs. I sold all my newer stuff. I think that is what this video is all about. Covid came and people got caught up in "buy the new boxes cheap, sell the most expensive cards" and repeat. They were and still are not, for the most part true collectors, they are entrepreneurs who are now losing their shirt and complaining.

Directly · #11 11-03-2022, 07:33 AM

The year 1986--Fleer basketball was distributed by all the Candy Co, the product wasn't that rare, it just didn't sell--Fact --the delivery drivers were instructed to pickup all unsold boxes in their area then given the opportunity to purchase them for $6.00/box--one driver bought 35 boxes and opened then all. Yep, he had over 100 Jordan RC (approx. 3 sets per box), in fact anyone had the offer to buy them at that price--even so the company returned 3 cases back to their Fleer distributor!---who would had thought, if discussing Train Collectors future, for a comparison, please chime in ?

Snapolit1 · #12 11-03-2022, 07:52 AM

Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.

Exhibitman · #13 11-03-2022, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.

From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.

ullmandds · #14 11-03-2022, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.

Shocking!

G1911 · #15 11-03-2022, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.

And Topps got accused at about the same time of physically marking packs with a big hit for some reason.

Snowman · #16 11-07-2022, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by exhibitman

from what i've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone [who fails to understand probability thoery] did a [poor job of] mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype babe ruth.

fyp...

parkplace33 · #17 11-03-2022, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.

In the past yes, I would agree with you. But not right now. There is some correlation.

"A rising tide lifts all boats". Interest in any area of the hobby helps the entire hobby. But concern in one area has impact, abit small, in other areas.

timzcardz · #18 11-03-2022, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkplace33

In the past yes, I would agree with you. But not right now. There is some correlation.

"A rising tide lifts all boats". Interest in any area of the hobby helps the entire hobby. But concern in one area has impact, abit small, in other areas.

Except that a boat with a hole in it just becomes further underwater.

Fuddjcal · #19 11-04-2022, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BioCRN

One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.

You must have Kenny Hubbs of the Chicago Cubs?

BioCRN · #20 11-04-2022, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

You must have Kenny Hubbs of the Chicago Cubs?

Hubbs 62-64 is part of the collection. I thought about adding the 1966 Dick Ellsworth because the photo is actually Hubbs (doh), but I passed on it after thinking about it a while.

cubman1941 · #21 11-04-2022, 09:38 AM

I have both.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Hubbs 62-64 is part of the collection. I thought about adding the 1966 Dick Ellsworth because the photo is actually Hubbs (doh), but I passed on it after thinking about it a while.

mrreality68 · #22 11-02-2022, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rad_Hazard

Thank you for summarizing!

This quote depresses the hell out of me:

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Researching older players is literally WHY I collect. It's the best part. I've read/listened to countless books, newspaper articles, etc, on 19th century ballplayers to gain that knowledge and it's been an absolute pleasure. If there wasn't this aspect I don't think I would collect, yet it seems like that's the main barrier for the younger crowd (I say this as someone in their late 30's).

agreed interesting watch(dragged at points) and great summarizing.

Seems like Vintage is the safer play

Peter_Spaeth · #23 11-02-2022, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrreality68

agreed interesting watch(dragged at points) and great summarizing.

Seems like Vintage is the safer play

Ya think?

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